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(-- COVID-19 Economic Impacts --, Open issues, Bold = already…
-- COVID-19 Economic Impacts --
People get sick and die
Clinic and Hospital demand up
H/c labor shortages
Disinfectant demand up
Testing kit demand
Meds demand up for correlated health issues
Attempts at a vaccine
Preventative med demand up (immune)
Healthcare worker demand up
Patient quarters overbooked, new facilities constructed
Elderly deaths, estate turnover
Urban deaths, estate turnover
In-home quarantine
Enforcement Security?
Global supply chain
Debt-laden companies default Ch11
Consumers and companies shift spend to substitutes
Industries most dependent on Asian imports run out of stock
Retailers run out of stock
Significant corporate layoffs
Capital markets
Suppliers tighten terms, scrutinize credit risk
Debt holders collect and place new restrictions on credit
Hot money moves from Equity to Gold, Debt
Govt fiscal stimulus, lower lending rates
Currency collapse in weakened economies
People change travel & routines
People stop going to work or work from home :telephone_receiver:
Families consolidate locations :house_buildings:
Use of public transport minimized :bus:
Fewer vehicle miles :blue_car:
Major events cancelled
Social, music, etc :musical_note:
Sporting events :sports_medal:
Conferences :silhouettes:
Fewer hotel stays
:hotel:
Fewer flights and flight hours
:airplane:
Schools close intermittent, possibly rest of year :school:
People shift spending
MINUS
Public use facilities (e.g., gyms, strip malls)
:weight_lifter:
Bricks and Mortar retail
Dining out :knife_fork_plate:
Frivolous consumption
Durables delayed (cars)
Pull money from investments :heavy_dollar_sign:
Tourism declines
Casinos
Urban destinations
Rural retreats?
Impacted countries, regions
PLUS
Delivery services
Non-perishable Food
Masks, Cleaners, PPE, etc
Guns & Ammo
Media/entertainment consumption
Online and wireless comms consumption
Open issues
What happens to construction activity?
What happens to the value of real estate?
How far will commodity prices go? oil, cattle
When will public gain comfort with C19 risk?
Bold
= already occurring in U.S.