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Chapter 5: Birth and Fertility (Theories of Fertility (The Theory of…
Chapter 5: Birth and Fertility
Population Change
Can be traced to the interactions among the 4 vital events
Death
In-migration
Birth
Out-migration
Reproduction
Refers to the capacity for a population to sustain its size
Fertility
Is the status of the parent
Birth
From the point of view of the newborn
Natality
Is the ratio of the # of births to the size of the population
Fertility in the United States
Between the colonial era and the 1940s, average family size declined
Estimates prior to the Revolutionary War had TFR at 8.0 per married woman
TFR fell below 4.0 in the early 20th century
Dropped to their lowest levels in the Depression years of the 1930s
Then came the Baby Boom
Theories of Fertility
J. Caldwell: Wealth Flow Theory
Based on assumptions about family organization and economic structure that combine the structural and cultural approaches
Focuses on the role of non-demographic causes
Acquisition of a Western education
Assimilation of Western values
Opportunities for socioeconomic mobility
Reversal in wealth flows from child to parent to parent to child
Diffusion Theories
The spread from one population to another of new ideas and behaviors associated with family planning
Suggests that information is exchanged though both public and informal channels
Successful transfer occurs with adoption of innovation
Pace of diffusion depends upon costs and benefits of new behavior
Emergence of new beliefs and practices become cultural norms
Little evidence for its effects in relation to family planning
Social Structure Theories
Focus on the role of modernization and industrialization
Stress the close association between fertility and mortality
Mortality declines almost always precede fertility declines
When infant mortality is common, high fertility levels enable families to achieve their desired family sizes
No one theory can be judged right or wrong because they are not mutually exclusive
Coale: The Role of Values and Custom
Fertility is a matter of style and custom rather than economic choice
A North-South divide observed in sex ratios, mortality and fertility rates
Women in the North suffer from social, economic, and political neglect, and they have much less autonomy in decision making than women in the South
R. Easterlin: Relative Income
The effect of income on family size depends on how couple view their demand for child quality
Parents want to give their children as much as they had at least
Assumes that tastes are formed during adolescence
If the current income is deemed inadequate, then family size will be small
If the family's resources are considered to be more than sufficient, families will be large
G.S. Becker: Quality of Children
In traditional societies, large families are desirable
As income increased, so did the # of children
In modern society, reproduction involves a large expenditure of resources
Opportunity cost
Cost is related to the modern idea of quality of offspring
The Theory of Intermediate Variables
Most theories of fertility indicate that an increase in a woman's birth parity is determined by social and economic factors
3 biological processes that occur in sequence mediate it
Conception
Gestation
Intercourse
The Theory of Multiphasic Demographic Response
High fertility was the normal condition for most of human existence
Total fertility levels everywhere were above the very highest today
NRRs were at or below 1.0 because of very high death rates
Innovations in sanitation and nutrition came
Declining mortality rates and consequent rapid population growth makes high fertility a problem
The large family was a necessary resource but became an obstacle
The response was a decline in fertility levels and a reduction in family size
1 more item...
Relative Deprivation
An increase in the proportion of those permanently celibate
A substantial increase in the age at marriage
The use of contraception within marriage
An increase in abortion and sterilization rates
International migration
Rural to urban migration
Common Period Measures
General Fertility Rate: GFR
The # of births that occur in a population during a year per 1,000 women of childbearing ages at midyear
Childbearing age assumed to be 15 to 44 or 49
GFR = B/W 15-44 x 1,000
Child Women Ratio: CWR
Accounts for the general experience of all women of childbearing age in relation to the # of living children
Not a birth rate or fertility rate, but it is an accurate reflection of the overall force of natality
CWR = P 0-5 / W 15-49 x 1,000
Total Fertility Rate: TFR
A weighted sum obtained by adding together ASFRs for each cohort
The sum is multiplied by 5 for the 5 years in each cohort
The # produced indicates the average # of children born to each 1,000 women at all childbearing ages
Gross Reproduction Rate: GRR
Only female births are considered
Concerned with the ability of a population to sustain its size over the generations
Crude Birth Rate: CBR
The total # of births to mothers of all ages during a year per 1,000 persons
CBR = B/P x 1,000
Net Reproduction Rate: NRR
Average # of daughters a woman will have
If she has children during her reproductive years
Her daughters survive to an age to bear a daughter
An NNR of 1 is exact replacement of the mother by one daughter
An NNR greater than 1 implies that a mother is replaced by more than one daughter
Age-Specific Fertility Rate: ASFR
The # of births per year by women of a specified age
ASFR x to x+n = (B x to x+n / W x to x+n) x 1,000
B is the # of births to women between ages x and x+n
W is the # of women between ages x and x+n at midyear
n usually equals 5 years
Cohort Measures
Account for the fertility experience over time of birth or marital cohort
Period measures are often inappropriate for long-term analyses
Have to assume nothing will happen to alter fertility
Customs and traditions in most societies tend to restrict premarital childbirth
Women are faced with the decision of timing the birth of their first child
Measuring Fertility
Fertility
The # of live births a woman has actually experienced
Fecundity
The physical capacity of a woman to give birth
Sterility
Contraception plays a lot larger role
Fertility level is determined by fecundity and sterility but their effects are negligible in industrialized nations
2 Ways to Measure Fertility
Period Measures
Synchronous model: happening at the same time
Account for births that occur to women in one or more age groups during a specific calendar year
Cohort Measures
Diachronic model: happening over time
Track the fertility performance of a specific group of women of similar ages
World Fertility: Levels and Trends
In the 1950s, fertility levels in industrialized countries remained steady at 2.8 children per woman
By the early 1960s, a decline began that continues to the present
Fertility Decline in Asia
Fertility rates in East Asia are similar to those of Europe
Almost all East Asian countries fell below replacement levels
Demographic giants: China and India
East Asia: Japan
Delayed Transition in Africa
Birth explosion continues
Major exceptions are the largely Muslim countries north of the Sahara
Sub-Saharan regions had fertility levels remaining very high
Botswana, Kenya, and Zimbabwe are on a fertility transition
Latin America: Low Fertility, High Variability
Latin America/Caribbean region has few very high-fertility populations
The Caribbean island nations actually had the lowest fertility in the region
Seven Caribbean island nations are now at or below replacement level