Global warming
Ice and sea levels
Extreme events
Cyclones
Droughts
Flooding
The melting of ice
Temperature
Changes in precipitation
Rising sea levels
Antarctic ice melt could push sea levels to rise 1.5 metres by 2100
Increase of 3.3mm per year since 1993
Between 1870-2010 since levels have increased by 240mm
Loss of habitat for Arctic animals: polar bears (endemic) and seals. Some species become prone to extinction.
Companies exploit the new areas without ice
The main impact of sea level rises from ice melting come from land based as (95%), because floating ice was already displacing water
Half of the world’s population lives in coastal areas. increasing sea levels will mean that they have to move. 10 m rise would displace 630 million people. Coastal cities: Shanghai, Tokyo, New York, Sao Paulo, Mumbai
Companies start using this for transportation
They start to look for oil using seismic blasting which cause physical trauma to animals
Tuvalu
60 cm increase in sea level would cost trillions of dollars of flood damage.
Forced migration
Positives:
Negatives:
New work opportunities
Survival
Education opportunities
Economic growth
Loss of culture
Dispersed population
Culture shock
Loss of language
Separating of families
Salination of fresh water
Soil erosion
Decrease of agriculture
Increased frequency
Increased flooding
Increased intensity
In Tuvalu cyclones have led to increased tides and king tides
Storm-related flooding increases
Tropical zones: flooding associated with tropical cyclones can lead to crop failures
Flooding can be less beneficial in drylands if the water can infiltrate and recharge groundwater, so that water becomes more readily available in the dry seasons and drought years
Coastal flooding
People living in coastal cities will have their homes destroyed as there is flooding where they live.
Due to increase in salinisation of soils, crops are not able to be grown.
Significant drying in the future is expected to affect large regions in sub tropics and mid-latitudes, even in areas where rainfall changes are negligible. When rainfall does occur, it is more likely to be in shorter, more intense bursts. This might mean summers are increasingly likely to see periods of dry weather punctuated with heavy storms.
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Uganda lost on average USD 237 million annually to droughts during the last decade. Sadoff et al. (2015) found that droughts were likely to reduce gross domestic product in Malawi by 20% and in Brazil by 7%.
In simple economies are mainly rain-fed agriculture and livestock semi-subsistence economies, with limited infrastructure, low levels of per capita income and high levels of self-provisioning in the rural population. The overall impact of drought may be particularly great because of the relative importance of the agricultural sector.
Rainfall decrease in Sahel (1950: 3 cm/month, 2010: 1 cm/month) has led to 25% drop in agriculture production and a rise between 20% and 60% in food prices across the region over the past five years
Forced migration
Syria
2-3 million people were pushed into extreme poverty as a result of the drought
Urban population has increased by 50% (2002-2010).
60% of the land in Syria experienced extreme drought (2006-2010), thus one of the most extreme crop failures in history.
Rural areas: gets abandoned due to drought
Lack of water, income, food
Farmers in rural areas had to move to the urban areas to find jobs.
Change in average precipitation 1986-2005
In high latitudes the precipitation increased by 10-20%, in low latitudes either increased or decreased by 0-10%
Changes in average precipitation 2081-2100
In high latitudes the precipitation will increase by 40-60%, in low latitudes it will generally increase or decrease by -20 to 10 %
Agriculture
Biomes
Delays planting, increase soil compaction, cause crop loss/failure through anoxia, root disease.
Water redistribution between the surface and groundwater, as the water storage in the soil is saturated. This results in increased surface flooding and soil erosion
Mosquitoes
An increase in temperature, rainfall, and humidity may cause a multiplication of the mosquitoes at high altitudes.
If the temperature continues to increase every year, it is said that mosquitos will live longer than was before. The season for mosquitos will be longer.
They might return to countries that don’t have malaria now, e.g. European countries: Sweden, Germany, etc
Sea turtles
Rising sea levels and stormy weather is eroding the beaches where sea turtles lay their eggs
Hotter land temperatures also cause greater number of turtles to be born female
In the short term, 20 to 30 years, the population will increase due to more females laying eggs
However, in the long run the unequal sex ratio of females to males would threaten the species to become extinct
Hotter sand can also cause complete nest failure, allowing for common nest areas to be inhabitable
The increase in ocean temperatures will alter sea currents and shift the areas of sea turtle prey and can affect other species
Polar bears
Sea ice loss is the biggest threat to polar bear numbers
It is their primary habitat
A platform for them to hunt seals
The total area of possible habitat is decreasing with the melting ice and the polar bears aren’t altering their choice in habitat in line with this. The warmer temperatures are also ruining the existing habitats.
As the ice carries on diminishing, the polar bears will become more food-stressed and populations will decline