Valuasi Sekuritas dan Saham (Company Analysis and Stock Valuation…
Valuasi Sekuritas dan Saham
An Introduction to Security
general approaches to the valuation process
(1) the topdown, three-step approach (2) the bottom-up, stock valuation, stockpicking approach
The difference between the two approaches is the perceived importanceof the economy and a firm’s industry on the valuation of a firm and its stock
The valuation process is like the chicken-and-egg dilemma.
but in this book, valuation begin with an analysis of aggregate economies and overall securities markets and progress to
different industries with a global perspective, then evaluate the securities issued by individual firms within the better industries
Analysis of Alternative Economiesand Security Markets
Analysis of Alternative Industries
Analysis of IndividualCompanies and Stocks
Theory of Valuation
Stream of Expected Returns (Cash Flows)
Form of Returns
The returns from an investment can take many forms, including earnings,cash flows, dividends, interest payments, or capital gains (increases in value) during a period.
Time Pattern and Growth Rate of Returns
You cannot calculate an accurate value for asecurity unless you can estimate when you will receive the returns or cash flows
Required Rate of Return
Investment Decision Process: A Comparison of
Estimated Values and Market Prices
If Estimated Intrinsic Value > Market Price, Buy or Hold it if You Own It. If Estimated Intrinsic Value < Market Price, Don’t Buy or Sell it if You Own It.
This process of valuation requires estimates of:
the stream of expected returns
the required rate of return on the investment (its discount rate).
Valuation Of Alternative Investment
Valutaion of bond, preffered stocks, common stock,
Relative Valuation Techniques
Earnings Multiplier = price/earnings (P/E),
The Price/Cash Flow Ratio = price/cash flow(P/CF)
price/book value (P/BV), and price/sales (P/S)
To properly implement the relative valuation technique, it is essential not only to compare thevarious ratios but also to understand what factors affect each of the valuation ratios and, therefore,know why they should differ.
Estimating The Inputs: The Required Rate Of Return And The Expected Growth Rate Of Valuation Variables
Required Rate of Return (k)
The economy’s real risk-free rate (RRFR)
The expected rate of inflation (I)
A risk premium (RP)
Estimating the Required Return for Foreign Securities
Expected Growth Rates
Estimating Growth from Fundamentals
The growth rate of dividends is determined bythe growth rate of earnings and the proportion of earnings paid out in dividends (the payout ratio).
Estimating Growth Based on History
Estimating Dividend Growth for Foreign Stocks
Retention Rates, Net Profit Margin, Total Asset Turnover, Total Asset/Equity Ratio
Company Analysis and Stock
growth company is a firm with the management ability and the opportunities to consistently make investments that yield rates of return greater than the firm’s required rate of return
growth stock is a stock
with a higher expected rate of return than other stocks in the market with similar risk characteristics.
Defensive companies are those whose future earnings are likely to withstand an economic
There are two closely related concepts of a defensive stock. First, a defensive stock’s rate of return is not expected to decline during an overall market decline, or decline less than the overall market. Second, our CAPM discussion indicated that an asset’s relevant risk is its covariance with the market portfolio of risky assets—that is, an asset’s systematic risk.
A cyclical company’s sales and earnings will be heavily influenced by aggregate business activity -A cyclical stock is the stock of any company that has returns that are more volatile than the overall market.
A speculative stock possesses a high probability of low or negative rates of return and a low probability of normal or high rates of return.
A speculative company is one whose assets involve great risk but that also has a possibility of great gain
Value stocks are those that appear to be undervalued for reasons other than earnings growth potential.
two significant determinants of a stock’s intrinsic value:
) growth of the firm’s expected earnings
and cash flows, and
) its risk and the appropriate required return (discount rate)
the present value of cash flows,
relative valuation ratio techniques
company’s competitive strategy
A defensive competitivestrategy involves positioning the firm to deflect the effect of the competitive forces inthe industry.
offensive competitive strategy is one in which the firm attempts to use its strengths toaffect the competitive forces in the industry
SWOT analysis help to evaluate a firm’s strategies to exploit its competitive advantagesor defend against its weaknesses
Estimating Intrinsic Value
Present value of dividens
Intrinsic Value = D1/(k − g)
Present Value of Dividends Model (DDM)
The total value of the stock is the sum of the three present-value (
high-growth period,declining-growth, constant-growth
Present Value of Free Cash Flow to Equity
Value =FCFE1/(k − gFCFE)
Present Value of Operating Free Cash Flow Firm
Value =FCFF1/ (WACC − gFCFF)
Estimating ompany Earnings Per Share
estimate the firm’s net profit margin, include three considerations:
identification and evaluation of the firm’s specificcompetitive strategy(
low-cost or differentiation,
the firm’s internal performance,including general company trends and consideration of any problems
the firm’s relationship with its industry,
Additional Measures Of Relative Value
Price/Book Value (P/BV) Ratio
Price/Cash Flow (P/CF) Ratio
Prices/Sales (P/S) Ratio
Influences on Analyst
Paralysis of Analysis
Analyst Conflicts of Interest
Walgreen Co.s Competitive Strategies, Walgreenshas pursued both strategies with different segments of its business
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