-- COVID-19 Economic Impacts --
People change travel & routines
People shift spending
People get sick and die
MINUS
PLUS
Masks, Cleaners, PPE, etc
Preventative med demand up (immune)
Healthcare worker demand up
Attempts at a vaccine
Non-perishable Food
Frivolous consumption
Durables delayed (cars)
Pull money from investments 💲
Dining out 🍽
Clinic and Hospital demand up
Fewer flights and flight hours ✈
Fewer hotel stays 🏨
Families consolidate locations 🏘
Major events cancelled
People stop going to work or work from home 📞
Global supply chain
Capital markets
Debt holders collect and place new restrictions on credit
Industries most dependent on Asian imports run out of stock
Hot money moves from Equity to Gold, Debt
Suppliers tighten terms, scrutinize credit risk
Retailers run out of stock
Consumers and companies shift spend to substitutes
Fewer vehicle miles 🚙
Bricks and Mortar retail
Online and wireless comms consumption
Delivery services
Schools close intermittent, possibly rest of year 🏫
Sporting events 🏅
Conferences 👥
Social, music, etc 🎵
Guns & Ammo
Patient quarters overbooked, new facilities constructed
Tourism declines
Casinos
Significant corporate layoffs
Use of public transport minimized 🚌
Urban destinations
Rural retreats?
Impacted countries, regions
In-home quarantine
Enforcement Security?
Testing kit demand
Govt fiscal stimulus, lower lending rates
Currency collapse in weakened economies
Public use facilities (e.g., gyms, strip malls) 🏋
Open issues
What happens to construction activity?
What happens to the value of real estate?
Meds demand up for correlated health issues
How far will commodity prices go? oil, cattle
When will public gain comfort with C19 risk?
Media/entertainment consumption
H/c labor shortages
Elderly deaths, estate turnover
Urban deaths, estate turnover
Debt-laden companies default Ch11
Bold = already occurring in U.S.
Disinfectant demand up