Analysing the demand for tourist travel
Forecasting the demand for tourist transport
Essential for commercial operators
Basic types of forcasting method
the principal methods of forcasting
quantititive techiniques forecaster use in terms of the degree of statistical and mathematical complexity based on
Air transport traffic forecast in Asia-Pacific to the year 2014
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multiple methods in a focasting
establish how consumer demand for tourist transport has shaped previous trends and how these may change in the future
the demand for tourist transport will change on a global basis and within difirent countries over the next decade
efficent planning
avoiding oversupply
minimise the risk of failure
seek to maximise revenue and profits in moving towards maximum efficiency in use resources
maximise the possibilities of sucess
erode the profitavility
estimations of future traffic potential and a range of :possible : scenarios
casual : since they are searching for statistical relationships to suggest what is causing tourist trip to take a certain form, thereby producing particilar trends
enable forcasts to be amended to incorporate relevant consumer demand data
example : do not explain what specific factors are shaping the trends, they only indicate what is hapening in terms of observed trends
forcastings have a better overview
approach forcasting = finding what they are attemping to do
a number of variables are examined which relate to factors directy and indirectly influencing travel : most common variables
total tourist expenditure and expenditure per capita
market shares of tourism
number of tourist trip
the tourism sector's share of gross domestic products
Japan displaces as the main driver of Asia aviation demand by 2014
Airlines in Asia will have to accommodate growth by
There will be limited growth in the world market for air travel as many market have matured
expanded research
Asian international traffic will rise from 32.5% of global traffic in 1999 to 36.1% by 2014
ATAG outlined the key drivers of air travel to 2014 as
Chinese aviation market dominated
short-haul high-sensity routes
medium-haul routes
long-haul routes
increasing load factors
better seat densities
increasing the number of non-stop flights
having larger air craft
the demand for 24.000 aircraft
the growing urbansation of Asia and rise the megacities
compound growth in global air travel of 4.9%
Asia will be the leading region for Air traffic
"extrapolation, subject to the application of ... [statistical analysis using] weights of variables
structured group discussions amongst a panel of tourism transport experts may be used to access factors determining future traffic focast
" the projection by extrapolation"
qualitative techiniques (less rigorous)
quantititives techniques
economic theory models
time-series analysis of trends
TOURISM STATISTICS
PROBLEM IN USING TRANSPORT AND TOURISM STATISTICS
The sample sizes are often small and selective in geographical coverage, offering little more than an insight into a region, market segment or mode of transport
Developing a better understanding of the tourism–transport–leisure interface requires that statistics are collected with a clear purpose in mind and the end user needs to be clearly identified
Researchers need to use as many different data sources as they can access, triangulating them to try and corroborate their findings and to establish some measure of the volume, patterns and activities of visitors using different forms of transport during their tourism activities
The statistics rarely link transport and tourism together
Researchers need to be aware of the limitations of the statistical sources they use and acknowledge who the statistics are collected for, the methodologies used and the inherent weaknesses
The statistics are collected, which in most cases are for government recording purposes or for industry groups
INTERNATIONAL TOURIST TRAVEL
TRENDS AND PATTERNS
The Middle East received 15.3 million arrivals in 1996 and 30 million in 2003 and 48 million in 2007
The East Asian Pacific (EAP) region continued to experience a rapid growth in arrivals between 1986 and 1996, with 87 million arrivals, which reached 131 million in 2002 and dropped to 119 million in 2003 due to the effect of SARS
International tourist arrivals have risen from 25 million in 1950 to
593 million in 1996 and 694 million in 2003, 903 million in 2007 and 924 million in 2008
East Asia Pacific supplanted the Americas into third place, with 20 per cent of all arrivals compared to the Americas with 16 per cent.
In 2007, Europe still dominated the overall market share with 52 per cent of arrivals
Between 1990 and 2000 world arrivals grew 42 per cent
In 2006–2007, arrivals grew by 6.6 per cent, while tourist receipts grew by 5.6 per cent to US$85 billion
Africa received 20.6 million arrivals in 1996 and 30 million in 2003 rising to 44 million in 2007, accounting for 5 per cent of all arrivals
3 common types of tourism survey
pre-travel studies of tourist intended travel habits and likely use ò tourist transport
studies of tourist in transit or at their destination, to provide information on their actual behaviour and plans for the remainder of their holiday or journey
post-travel studies of tourist once they have returned to their place of residnece
Summary of tourism statistics
World summary of international tourism statistics
Tourism motivations
Tourism accommodation
Country studies that examine the detailed breakdown of tourism statistics collected for each area, including tourism seasonality
Arrivals of cruise passengers
Tourism payments
Tourist arrivals
Trends in world international tourism arrivals, receipts and exports
Accommodation capacity by regions
Domestic tourism
INSIGHT INTRO
Tourist arrivals in different regions of the world and for specific countries
Tourist expenditure on transport-related services
The number of nights spent in different countries by tourist
The volume of tourist trips
Types of tourism
CRUISING AND FERRY TRANSPORT STATISTICS
The need for a public tender process
Tendering the entire network
Tendering specific routes or a group of routes
Scotland–Northern Ireland international ferry route carries around 2 million passengers a year, with demand highly seasonal and reflected in enhanced summer sailings and limited winter services
In contrast to the ferry sector, data is more problematic for the cruising sector
Caledonian McBrayne services carrying 5.3 million passengers a year including 1.1 million cars
Data sources on international tourist travel
Bus and coach travel statitstics
sparsely documented
coach travel
rural
urban-based trips
inter-urban
coach market (NWRDA)
1:20 all domestic staying trip in NW England
spent £120 mil/year
dominant locations: Blackpool (50%), the Lake District (30%)
2$mill trips/year
still being underestimated
provide a generic overview
hop on/hop off basis
airport shuttle services and tailor-made services
still have considerable potential for growth
employs around 10 mil people
Aviation statistics
ICAO 2007 annual report
2007
international scheduled traffic
Germany//UK: 7%
Japan: 6%
American airlines: 17%
distribution
African 🌍: 2%
Latin American, Caribbean, Middle Eastern: 4%
North America 🌎: 33%
European 🌍: 27%
airline carried 2.260 million passengers
Asia - Pacific 🌏: 29%
schedule traffic volumes
Japan 🇯🇵: 6%
Germany 🇩🇪: 5%
USA 🇺🇸: 31%
UK 🇬🇧: 5%
trends in passenger loading
69% (2001) due to 9/11
76% (2006)
65% (1993) ➡️ 71% (2002)
77% (2007)
contraction
data dependent upon airport willingness to report
2003: highlight dominance of US airport
2004: Beijing enters as 9th place
the data is unable to identify leisure trips and tourist
collected by national aviation organisation
outline the origin and destination of terminal passengers
Emergent
developed regions
60% world's commercial vehicles
15% population
26% of the earth's area
newly industrialised countries (NICs)
increased mobility
Africa 🇿🇦
notable
Japan 🇯🇵
64 - 67% commercial and passenger vehicles
Sources
World
United Nations Statistical Yearbook
Asian
Statistical Abstract of Transport in Asia (2003)
Statistical Yearbook of Asia and the Pacific (2007)
Rail travel statistics
OECD in Figures 2005 - Transport
well documented
data from UIC
EU's Energy and Transport in Figures
Trends in Transport Sector 1997 - 2000 (OECD 2002)
click to edit
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Infrastructure development in developing countries: experiences from Asia-Pacific
Cases with infrastructure development
high income countries
tourism grows
intergrated transport network
tourism grows
major infrastructure investment programme
low income countries
limited element of privatisation supply-led
roads in poor condition though expanding tourism economy
congestion
medium income economies
expressway networks of road
well developed urban public transport system
airport policy based on hub + spoke operations Asian hub
in supply-led mode, latent demand existed development
MOTIVATION, TOURIST TRANSPORT RESEARCH AND PSYCHOLOGICAL ISSUES
The links between motivation, life cycle, transport roles and the travellers experience
Transport's multiple roles
Integrated element
Travel style meshed with the experience
Significant constraint
Travel endured
Full inhibitor
Travel not undertaken, even if desired
Dominates the experience
Travelling style is the main experience
Functional link
Travel evalueted for efficiency - instrumental levels of satisfaction
Life cycle and experience factors
Age
Family status
Living arrangements
Previous travel experience
Transport determinants
Kind of access provided
Availability
Competitors
Cost
Travellers' motives and motive patterns
Additional motivational emphases
Involvement with host site/people
Autonomy
Security
Romance
Nostalgia
Recognition by others
Isolation
Suggested core motivation
Relationships
Novelty
Personal development
Escape and relaxation
"Motivation is about the causes of personal action in tourism and other activities"
Alternative approaches to understanding future demand for tourism and transport services: scenario planning
THE INTERNATIONAL DEMAND FOR TOURIST TRAVEL: UNDERSTANDING WHY PEOPLE TRAVEL
Reasons
Shopping
The pursuit of relaxation and recuperation functions
Prestige
Wish fulfilment
Educational opportunities
A desire to escape from a mundane environment
The strengthening of family bonds
An opportunity for play
Social interaction
Classify tourists according to the type of holiday
The explorers
The individual mass tourist
The drifter
The organised mass tourist
tourism demand forecasting as an approach is that it's not sophisticated enough to accomodate the impact of tourist behavior change and the impact of events
profits
it's crucial for researcher to develop some forecasting methods that can accommodate unexpected events in predicting the potential impacts of these one-off events through scenario analysis
well suited to address some of the potential shortcomings of futures research
enrich our understanding of transport and tourism future
given the current concerns and uncertainty over global issue
scenario planning as a method of analysis
is used to consider the uncertain elements in the bussiness environment and imrove our foresight
embraces a wide variety of techniques to help create choices
3 question
what is the most likely to happen
what would we prefer to happen
what may happen
the commonality was the idea that scenario building does not focus on making predictions and forecast, but rather on describing images of the futures that challenge current assumption àn boarden perspective
effect change in corporate strategy
emphasise how learning about the future and certainty can use a variety tools
work of a large organisation
craft a number of diverging stories about the future
"risk management ", "creativity and sparking new ideas