Forecasting the demand for tourist transport

Essential for commercial operators

seek to maximise revenue and profits in moving towards maximum efficiency in use resources

minimise the risk of failure

maximise the possibilities of sucess

avoiding oversupply

erode the profitavility

efficent planning

estimations of future traffic potential and a range of :possible : scenarios

the principal methods of forcasting

"extrapolation, subject to the application of ... [statistical analysis using] weights of variables

and structured group discussions amongst a panel of tourism transport experts may be used to access factors determining future traffic focast

" the projection by extrapolation"

Basic types of forcasting method

qualitative techiniques (less rigorous)

quantititives techniques

quantititive techiniques forecaster use in terms of the degree of statistical and mathematical complexity based on

time-series analysis of trends

economic theory models

a number of variables are examined which relate to factors directy and indirectly influencing travel : most common variables

total tourist expenditure and expenditure per capita

market shares of tourism

number of tourist trip

the tourism sector's share of gross domestic products

multiple methods in a focasting

example : do not explain what specific factors are shaping the trends, they only indicate what is hapening in terms of observed trends

casual : since they are searching for statistical relationships to suggest what is causing tourist trip to take a certain form, thereby producing particilar trends

approach forcasting = finding what they are attemping to do

enable forcasts to be amended to incorporate relevant consumer demand data

establish how consumer demand for tourist transport has shaped previous trends and how these may change in the future

forcastings have a better overview

the demand for tourist transport will change on a global basis and within difirent countries over the next decade

Air transport traffic forecast in Asia-Pacific to the year 2014

There will be limited growth in the world market for air travel as many market have matured

Japan displaces as the main driver of Asia aviation demand by 2014

Asian international traffic will rise from 32.5% of global traffic in 1999 to 36.1% by 2014

Chinese aviation market dominated

ATAG outlined the key drivers of air travel to 2014 as

short-haul high-sensity routes

medium-haul routes

long-haul routes

Airlines in Asia will have to accommodate growth by

increasing the number of non-stop flights

better seat densities

increasing load factors

having larger air craft

expanded research

compound growth in global air travel of 4.9%

the demand for 24.000 aircraft

the growing urbansation of Asia and rise the megacities

Asia will be the leading region for Air traffic

Alternative approaches to understading future demand for tourism and transport services : scenario planning

tourism demand forecasting as an approach is that it's not sophisticated enough to accomodate the impact of tourist behavior change and the impact of events

it's crucial for researcher to develop some forecasting methods that can accommodate unexpected events in predicting the potential impacts of these one-off events through scenario analysis

profits

enrich our understanding of transport and tourism future

process of predicting multiple, plauside and uncertain futures

well suited to address some of the potential shortcomings of futures research

approach to the future argues

given the current concerns and uncertainty over global issue

scenario planning as a method of analysis

is used to consider the uncertain elements in the bussiness environment and imrove our foresight

embraces a wide variety of techniques to help create choices

3 question

what is the most likely to happen

what would we prefer to happen

what may happen

the commonality was the idea that scenario building does not focus on making predictions and forecast, but rather on describing images of the futures that challenge current assumption àn boarden perspective

effect change in corporate strategy

emphasise how learning about the future and certainty can use a variety tools

work of a large organisation

craft a number of diverging stories about the future

"risk management ", "creativity and sparking new ideas