Forecasting the demand for tourist transport
Essential for commercial operators
seek to maximise revenue and profits in moving towards maximum efficiency in use resources
minimise the risk of failure
maximise the possibilities of sucess
avoiding oversupply
erode the profitavility
efficent planning
estimations of future traffic potential and a range of :possible : scenarios
the principal methods of forcasting
"extrapolation, subject to the application of ... [statistical analysis using] weights of variables
and structured group discussions amongst a panel of tourism transport experts may be used to access factors determining future traffic focast
" the projection by extrapolation"
Basic types of forcasting method
qualitative techiniques (less rigorous)
quantititives techniques
quantititive techiniques forecaster use in terms of the degree of statistical and mathematical complexity based on
time-series analysis of trends
economic theory models
a number of variables are examined which relate to factors directy and indirectly influencing travel : most common variables
total tourist expenditure and expenditure per capita
market shares of tourism
number of tourist trip
the tourism sector's share of gross domestic products
multiple methods in a focasting
example : do not explain what specific factors are shaping the trends, they only indicate what is hapening in terms of observed trends
casual : since they are searching for statistical relationships to suggest what is causing tourist trip to take a certain form, thereby producing particilar trends
approach forcasting = finding what they are attemping to do
enable forcasts to be amended to incorporate relevant consumer demand data
establish how consumer demand for tourist transport has shaped previous trends and how these may change in the future
forcastings have a better overview
the demand for tourist transport will change on a global basis and within difirent countries over the next decade
Air transport traffic forecast in Asia-Pacific to the year 2014
There will be limited growth in the world market for air travel as many market have matured
Japan displaces as the main driver of Asia aviation demand by 2014
Asian international traffic will rise from 32.5% of global traffic in 1999 to 36.1% by 2014
Chinese aviation market dominated
ATAG outlined the key drivers of air travel to 2014 as
short-haul high-sensity routes
medium-haul routes
long-haul routes
Airlines in Asia will have to accommodate growth by
increasing the number of non-stop flights
better seat densities
increasing load factors
having larger air craft
expanded research
compound growth in global air travel of 4.9%
the demand for 24.000 aircraft
the growing urbansation of Asia and rise the megacities
Asia will be the leading region for Air traffic
Alternative approaches to understading future demand for tourism and transport services : scenario planning
tourism demand forecasting as an approach is that it's not sophisticated enough to accomodate the impact of tourist behavior change and the impact of events
it's crucial for researcher to develop some forecasting methods that can accommodate unexpected events in predicting the potential impacts of these one-off events through scenario analysis
profits
enrich our understanding of transport and tourism future
process of predicting multiple, plauside and uncertain futures
well suited to address some of the potential shortcomings of futures research
approach to the future argues
given the current concerns and uncertainty over global issue
scenario planning as a method of analysis
is used to consider the uncertain elements in the bussiness environment and imrove our foresight
embraces a wide variety of techniques to help create choices
3 question
what is the most likely to happen
what would we prefer to happen
what may happen
the commonality was the idea that scenario building does not focus on making predictions and forecast, but rather on describing images of the futures that challenge current assumption àn boarden perspective
effect change in corporate strategy
emphasise how learning about the future and certainty can use a variety tools
work of a large organisation
craft a number of diverging stories about the future
"risk management ", "creativity and sparking new ideas