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Analysing the demand for tourist travel (FORCASTING THE DEMAND OF TOURIST…
Analysing the demand for tourist travel
TOURISM STATISTICS
INSIGHT INTRO
Types of tourism
The number of nights spent in different countries by tourist
The volume of tourist trips
Tourist expenditure on transport-related services
Tourist arrivals in different regions of the world and for specific countries
3 common types of tourism survey
pre-travel studies of tourist intended travel habits and likely use ò tourist transport
studies of tourist in transit or at their destination, to provide information on their actual behaviour and plans for the remainder of their holiday or journey
post-travel studies of tourist once they have returned to their place of residnece
Summary of tourism statistics
Trends in world international tourism arrivals, receipts and exports
Arrivals of cruise passengers
Accommodation capacity by regions
Domestic tourism
Tourist arrivals
Tourism payments
World summary of international tourism statistics
Tourism motivations
Tourism accommodation
Country studies that examine the detailed breakdown of tourism statistics collected for each area, including tourism seasonality
INTERNATIONAL TOURIST TRAVEL
TRENDS AND PATTERNS
International tourist arrivals have risen from 25 million in 1950 to
593 million in 1996 and 694 million in 2003, 903 million in 2007 and 924 million in 2008
Between 1990 and 2000 world arrivals grew 42 per cent
In 2006–2007, arrivals grew by 6.6 per cent, while tourist receipts grew by 5.6 per cent to US$85 billion
The East Asian Pacific (EAP) region continued to experience a rapid growth in arrivals between 1986 and 1996, with 87 million arrivals, which reached 131 million in 2002 and dropped to 119 million in 2003 due to the effect of SARS
Africa received 20.6 million arrivals in 1996 and 30 million in 2003 rising to 44 million in 2007, accounting for 5 per cent of all arrivals
The Middle East received 15.3 million arrivals in 1996 and 30 million in 2003 and 48 million in 2007
In 2007, Europe still dominated the overall market share with 52 per cent of arrivals
East Asia Pacific supplanted the Americas into third place, with 20 per cent of all arrivals compared to the Americas with 16 per cent.
PROBLEM IN USING TRANSPORT AND TOURISM STATISTICS
The statistics are collected, which in most cases are for government recording purposes or for industry groups
The statistics rarely link transport and tourism together
The sample sizes are often small and selective in geographical coverage, offering little more than an insight into a region, market segment or mode of transport
Researchers need to be aware of the limitations of the statistical sources they use and acknowledge who the statistics are collected for, the methodologies used and the inherent weaknesses
Developing a better understanding of the tourism–transport–leisure interface requires that statistics are collected with a clear purpose in mind and the end user needs to be clearly identified
Researchers need to use as many different data sources as they can access, triangulating them to try and corroborate their findings and to establish some measure of the volume, patterns and activities of visitors using different forms of transport during their tourism activities
CRUISING AND FERRY TRANSPORT STATISTICS
The need for a public tender process
Tendering the entire network
Tendering specific routes or a group of routes
Caledonian McBrayne services carrying 5.3 million passengers a year including 1.1 million cars
Scotland–Northern Ireland international ferry route carries around 2 million passengers a year, with demand highly seasonal and reflected in enhanced summer sailings and limited winter services
In contrast to the ferry sector, data is more problematic for the cruising sector
THE INTERNATIONAL DEMAND FOR TOURIST TRAVEL: UNDERSTANDING WHY PEOPLE TRAVEL
Reasons
Prestige
Social interaction
The strengthening of family bonds
Educational opportunities
An opportunity for play
Wish fulfilment
The pursuit of relaxation and recuperation functions
Shopping
A desire to escape from a mundane environment
Classify tourists according to the type of holiday
The individual mass tourist
The explorers
The organised mass tourist
The drifter
MOTIVATION, TOURIST TRANSPORT RESEARCH AND PSYCHOLOGICAL ISSUES
"Motivation is about the causes of personal action in tourism and other activities"
The links between motivation, life cycle, transport roles and the travellers experience
Life cycle and experience factors
Age
Family status
Living arrangements
Previous travel experience
Travellers' motives and motive patterns
Suggested core motivation
Escape and relaxation
Novelty
Relationships
Personal development
Additional motivational emphases
Romance
Nostalgia
Involvement with host site/people
Recognition by others
Isolation
Autonomy
Security
Transport's multiple roles
Functional link
Travel evalueted for efficiency - instrumental levels of satisfaction
Integrated element
Travel style meshed with the experience
Significant constraint
Travel endured
Dominates the experience
Travelling style is the main experience
Full inhibitor
Travel not undertaken, even if desired
Transport determinants
Kind of access provided
Availability
Cost
Competitors
Alternative approaches to understanding future demand for tourism and transport services: scenario planning
Forecasting the demand for tourist transport
Infrastructure development in developing countries: experiences from Asia-Pacific
in supply-led mode, latent demand existed development
Cases with infrastructure development
low income countries
limited element of privatisation supply-led
congestion
roads in poor condition though expanding tourism economy
medium income economies
expressway networks of road
airport policy based on hub + spoke operations Asian hub
well developed urban public transport system
high income countries
major infrastructure investment programme
tourism grows
intergrated transport network
tourism grows
Data sources on international tourist travel
Bus and coach travel statitstics
coach market (NWRDA)
spent £120 mil/year
2$mill trips/year
1:20 all domestic staying trip in NW England
dominant locations: Blackpool (50%), the Lake District (30%)
still being underestimated
airport shuttle services and tailor-made services
provide a generic overview
hop on/hop off basis
coach travel
rural
urban-based trips
inter-urban
employs around 10 mil people
still have considerable potential for growth
sparsely documented
Aviation statistics
ICAO 2007 annual report
2007
international scheduled traffic
Japan: 6%
American airlines: 17%
Germany//UK: 7%
schedule traffic volumes
Japan 🇯🇵: 6%
USA 🇺🇸: 31%
Germany 🇩🇪: 5%
UK 🇬🇧: 5%
distribution
Latin American, Caribbean, Middle Eastern: 4%
African 🌍: 2%
North America 🌎: 33%
Asia - Pacific 🌏: 29%
European 🌍: 27%
airline carried 2.260 million passengers
trends in passenger loading
69% (2001) due to 9/11
76% (2006)
65% (1993) ➡️ 71% (2002)
77% (2007)
contraction
2004: Beijing enters as 9th place
the data is unable to identify leisure trips and tourist
data dependent upon airport willingness to report
2003: highlight dominance of US airport
collected by national aviation organisation
outline the origin and destination of terminal passengers
Sources
World
United Nations Statistical Yearbook
Asian
Statistical Yearbook of Asia and the Pacific (2007)
Statistical Abstract of Transport in Asia (2003)
Emergent
Japan 🇯🇵
64 - 67% commercial and passenger vehicles
Africa 🇿🇦
notable
developed regions
60% world's commercial vehicles
26% of the earth's area
15% population
newly industrialised countries (NICs)
increased mobility
Rail travel statistics
EU's Energy and Transport in Figures
OECD in Figures 2005 - Transport
Trends in Transport Sector 1997 - 2000 (OECD 2002)
well documented
data from UIC
FORCASTING THE DEMAND OF TOURIST TRANSPORT
a number of variables are examined which relate to factors directy and indirectly influencing travel : most common variables
market shares of tourism
total tourist expenditure and expenditure per capita
the tourism sector's share of gross domestic products
number of tourist trip
multiple methods in a focasting
casual : since they are searching for statistical relationships to suggest what is causing tourist trip to take a certain form, thereby producing particilar trends
approach forcasting = finding what they are attemping to do
example : do not explain what specific factors are shaping the trends, they only indicate what is hapening in terms of observed trends
forcastings have a better overview
enable forcasts to be amended to incorporate relevant consumer demand data
Essential for commercial operators
minimise the risk of failure
estimations of future traffic potential and a range of possible scenarios
efficent planning
maximise the possibilities of sucess
the demand for tourist transport will change on a global basis and within difirent countries over the next decade
erode the profitavility
seek to maximise revenue and profits in moving towards maximum efficiency in use resources
avoiding oversupply
establish how consumer demand for tourist transport has shaped previous trends and how these may change in the future
Air transport traffic forecast in Asia-Pacific to the year 2014
There will be limited growth in the world market for air travel as many market have matured
Chinese aviation market dominated
ATAG outlined the key drivers of air travel to 2014 as
long-haul routes
short-haul high-sensity routes
medium-haul routes
Asian international traffic will rise from 32.5% of global traffic in 1999 to 36.1% by 2014
Japan displaces as the main driver of Asia aviation demand by 2014
Airlines in Asia will have to accommodate growth by
increasing the number of non-stop flights
better seat densities
having larger air craft
increasing load factors
expanded research
the growing urbansation of Asia and rise the megacities
compound growth in global air travel of 4.9%
the demand for 24.000 aircraft
Asia will be the leading region for Air traffic
the principal methods of forcasting
" the projection by extrapolation"
and structured group discussions amongst a panel of tourism transport experts may be used to access factors determining future traffic focast
"extrapolation, subject to the application of ... [statistical analysis using] weights of variables
Basic types of forcasting method
qualitative techiniques (less rigorous)
quantititives techniques
quantititive techiniques forecaster use in terms of the degree of statistical and mathematical complexity based on
time-series analysis of trends
economic theory models