e.g. GP who assesses a pt who thinks they might have a disease, GP assesses pt based on symptoms, family history, alternative explanations, prevalence of disease, etc. (prior), then send pt for tests, i.e. collecting data (likelihood), GP reassesses chance that pt has disease taking into account results and reliability of test, updating their prior based on the data (posterior). GP may then ask for further tests and reassess (i.e. return to beginning)
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Probability of pt having disease is subjective and might vary from GP to GP: own persoanl assessment of the occurence of event based on evidence available to them.
More similar to intuitive, everyday use of the word, 'probability' than the frequentist definition.
Frequentist definition: probability of event occurring is proportion of times event does occur in large no. of similar trials
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