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L5 Demand & Forecasting (B The Bullwhip Effect (• Mitigating the…

- - - - Management decision
        
        Capacity/Facilities/Technology/Sourcing/
        Workforce/Quality/Planning and Control/ Organisation structure
  - - - improve utilization of resource
    - - JIT/ TQM// visual system
      - 3M
        Muda/Waste/
        Mura/Irregularity/
        Muri/ Overburden
        
        Interpret Lean to kingman's equation
- - - - tech: VMI/ EDI/ POS
      - reduce intermediary Dell/ Macbook
    - - From push to pull system
        change COP point
        
        No need to forecast
        
        Need Agile responsive system
  - - - demand sensonility/ forecase error/ too many echelon/ discount/ Retailer power
    - - 1 forecasting/
        2 lead time/
        3 batch ordering/
        4 supply shortage/
        5 price variation
- - - - (1)identify factors
        (2)ascertain the relationship
        (3) balance the subject/ object
- - - - 個別預估減少一起預估的集體誤差
- - - - 1 trend
        2 seasonality
        3 cycle
        4 Random variation
    - - 3 Expontential smoothing
        
        weight actual and forcast
        
        考量trend factor
      - 4 Adusted exponential smoothing
        
        Strong trend cause lag
      - 2 Moving average forecasting
        (Smoothing model)
        
        the more periods, the smoother, the less variable
        
        考量當期forecasting
      - 1 Last period forecasting
        完全跟上一期一樣
        
        減少單一期間差距過大