Please enable JavaScript.

Coggle requires JavaScript to display documents.

Lecture 17-18: Modeling Complex Systems and Reasons for Hope (Solution to…

- - - - May try more of the same if smth works
      - If problem solved they may stop
      - one small change in existing policy at a time, and then wait to see effects
      - If problem unsolved, try another small step
      - small trial-and-error steps
    - - Problem not solved by a single govt authority
      - Divided among small agencies & departments (each one responsible for a small part of the system)
    - - Contradictions bet short & long term solutions
      - Agencies cannot control problems if the causes lie in areas outside their jurisdiction
      - long feedback delays for trial and error
  - - - nearly identical starting conditions can produce very diff system-level behaviours
  - - - Conservation
        
        Regulation of rate of extraction
      - Release (creative destruction)
        
        inevitable disruptive events
        
        Destroy stability & damage structure
      - Exploitation
        
        pioneers explore and colonize new territory for resources
      - Reorganisation of remnants
- - - - Overshoot & collapse
        
        During overshoot period, irreversible damage done
        
        Human popltn & quality of life collapses
        
        Delays between activity & impact allow a temporary overshoot of carrying capacity
        
        Meadows argues social change is needed urgently
        
        Population & resource use exceed carrying capacity
      - predicted we would exceed resource use limits in 100 yrs
    - - criticises Limits
        
        Ignores technological breakthroughs & future policies
        
        Ignores impacts of war, religions, cultures
        
        Treats world as homogenous
      - Beyond the Limits book
        
        addresses criticisms in Models of Doom
        
        argues we have alrdy surpassed limits
- - - - Public took a strong interest->outcry against reclamation
      - Reactions of public were compiled & sent to MND by nature groups
      - began to bring the public there to educate them
    - - "salvage collection"
      - Find out what is there before it's gone
      - conducted a biodiversity survey
    - - still undeveloped today
      - MND meets with nature and biodiversity groups to set priority to conserve biodiversity there
      - MND announced deferment of developt
      - NParks given authority to manage visitors & preservation of area
    - - Personal interconnection with nature
      - Multilevel communication across stakeholders
      - Scientific assessments & public response
      - engaged govt in acceptable & efficient manner
  - - - Financial incentive to save on trash
      - Used social network structure to keep ppl in touch, advertise & gain info
      - Relied on environmental attitudes of citizens
      - Engaged in political activity to change incentive structure for waste disposal
    - - Lobbied trash companies to curb side collect & use pay-per-can system
      - Recycling went up to 60-70% of citizens
      - Started a recycling program paid by $7 increase in property taxes
    - - too expensive for companies to offer curbside recycling pick up
  - - - Community members were audited and renovation of homes for energy efficiency paid for
      - High response rate
      - Used social networks to communicate programs, largely through word of mouth
      - Invested $4400 per home to weatherise homes to make more energy efficient->less costly than making new plants
      - $20million project to make homes more energy efficient for electrical heating
      - only 43% of predicted savings but overall still successful
    - - Created Community advisory board
        
        helped in continuing to spread word
        
        Informed BPA of public reactions
      - Small size of community
        
        easy to reach everyone
      - Recruitment of households for advance projects
        
        helped with word of mouth publicity
      - Huge financial incentive
        
        Paid all costs of weatherisation
      - commitment by major corporation BPA
    - - Hence either need to raise supply or lower demand
      - Environmentalist wanted to lower demand
      - Needed to meet predicted increase in use of electricity
      - BPA wanted to raise supply & build a plant ->cos more predictable than depending on ppl's decisions
      - Bonneville Power Administration
- - - - may differ from community's desire
      - need to be fair while technically competent in weighing financial & social costs involved
      - Politicians often rely on experts for public decision making
    - - 3 step process
        
        Expert panel
        
        Citizen panel
        
        Stakeholder meeting
      - decided to reject increasing nuclear & rather work on policies to reduce public consumption
      - considering whether should increase nuclear power to save on fossil fuels
  - - - Improve detection and signals
      - Speed up response time