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How do phenological shifts impact populations? (What phenological shifts…
How do phenological shifts impact populations?
What is the effect of resource mismatch? Degradation or loss.
How do changes in nectar affect population demographics?
What is the effect of nectar sugars on butterfly life span, fecundity, and offspring survival?
Females with more sugar can maintain their body weight, survive longer, and do not absorb their eggs which leads to increases in fecundity
How does larval survival compare? TBD
What is the effect of trace nectar elements on butterfly life span, fecundity, and offspring survival?
Amino acids: Hypothesis: increased maintenance of body wt, longer life span, and increased offspring survival.
Rachael + Hanna data indicate that preference is for amino acids in field
Can better maternal adult diet minimize environmental constraints on survival?
Experiment: Diet with and without amino acids.. or lupine vs lupine plus flowers, eggs split into different environments
What density of nectar is needed in the field to reach high levels of fecundity and weight maintenance?
Each flower has x nectar, but butterflies and hymenoptera/diptera compete for the resource. Are they foraging for thesame resources? Pair Hanna data and Susan water data..
Daily nectar activity*Daily Nectar availability=Daily consumption
Diffusion rate estimates the encounter rate. Could use a predator-prey frame work and IBM? Use lab work to determine optimal daily consumption
Collection of thoughts: Search costs? What are the costs of flight when searching for nectar. Optimal foraging theory would predict that the population is minimizing energy loss, but is that possible if the density is low? If nectar is low, do butterflies 'learn' this and cease searching and focus on egg laying?
Does host plant quality create windows of opportunity with boosted survival?
Can maternal choice of oviposition sites maximize offspring survival?
What host plant trait is associated with larval survival?
Experiment Field: Track host plant quality through the season and larval survival. Fenders? Easy spring larvae
Experiment Lab: Manipulate where the larvae are?
What host plant traits correlate with oviposition?
Observe: oviposition sites in the field
Do these traits correlate with short-term or full life cycle survival?
Requires information from the next question
Does host plant quality vary through a season?
Yes :check:
How do we conserve organisms with complex life cycles in a changing climate?
What phenological shifts are likely to occur in the future?
What are the predictions for the regions' future climate?
What are the climatic drivers of phenology?
Plant Flowering: drought years? Dryer spring/winters?
Butterflies Flight: ???
What is the historical timing?
Have mismatches occurred?
Quantile Regression
Plants: Museum Specimens
Quantile regression, hierarchical models? Modelling with some measure of drought instead of timing because we don't necessarily have real trends over time
Butterfly: Museum Specimens
Expand to include Pembina and Montis