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Basic principles and demand forecasting (5.1 Company results (logistic…
Basic principles and demand forecasting
5.1 Company results
logistic influence on company results
3 increase in rate of turnover
4 outsourcing of certain acticities
2 cost reduction
1 market expansion
Return Of Investment = ROI
5.2 Turnover and profit constribution
80/20 rule
20% of the products are responsible for;
80% of the turnover
ABC analysis
order policy
B products: replenish twice a week
C products: replenish once every two weeks
A products: order and replenish daily
Storage policy
Warehouse lay-out
5.3 Forecasting methods
Typical forecast aspects
Useally wrong, but a good estimate
it should be more than a simple number
aggregated forecasts are more accurate
the longer the forecast horizon, the less accurate it will ne
it should have information
forecasting methods
2 qualitative models
3 causal models
1 intuition
4 time series models
5.4 Time series forecasting
models
2 the weighted moving average
3 exponentia smoothing
1 the moving average