Judgement & Decision-making (Biases (Overconfidence Bias (Illusion of…
Judgement & Decision-making
When we observe an event or behaviour, we want to determine whether it is caused by internal factors (personality) or by external factors (situation,social pressure)
- Does the individual act the same way toward other people
- Does the individual act the same way over time
- Does individual act the same way across different situation?
- When explaining other people's behaviours, we tend to attribute more to internal factors than to external factors
Receiving and making sense of information from the environment
Goals & Needs
Social Identity Theory
Drawing a general impression about an individual based on a single characteristic ( physical attractiveness )
We automatically fill in information about someone based on our simplified understanding of the social group that this person belongs to
- the common human tendency to rely too heavily, or "anchor," on one trait or piece of information when making decisions.
- We make judgements in ways that benifit ourselves ( we tend to believe that we have contributed more to the teamwork than we actually have)
- we tend to perceive that our own belongings are more valuable than others' same belongins
- the way people behave depends on the way that their decision problems are framed.
Escalation of commitment
- human behavior pattern in which an individual or group facing increasingly negative outcomes from a decision, action, or investment nevertheless continues the behavior instead of altering course.
- Ego protection & self-justification.
- 1.Self Affirmation ( focus on good decisions in other areas). 2.Change of decision maker
- When making a judgement about an individual or event, people look for characteristics the individual or event may have in common with previously formed thoughts ( stereotypes )
- We suspect that we might have over-bidden after we have won a deal or auction ( associated with emotions such as regret,anger)
- Information that is more easily retrievable from memory has more influence on judgement and decisions
Curse of knowledge
- When we assess other's decision or behaviour, we tend to ignore the fact that they might not have the knowledge that we have. ( giving a friend directions)
Illusion of control
- Sometimes we think we have more control over circumstances than we actually do
- we tend to over-estimate the speed at which we will complete projects and tasks
- We are too sure that our judgemetns & decisions are accurate
- We tend to beleive that we are better than others in specific wats
- we tend to overestimate what we knew before hand based upon what we later learned.
- reduce our ability to learn from past
- mind capacity is limited
- mind is not limited by low capacity