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forecasting (qualitative models (jury of executive opinion: opinions from…
forecasting
time horizons
short-range: >3 months, e.g. plan purchase, schedule job
medium-range: 3 months - 3 years, e.g. sales plan, budgeting
long-range: 3 or more years, e.g. plan new products, facility location/expansion, R&D
qualitative models
jury of executive opinion: opinions from experts/managers, combined with statistical models
delphi method: decision makers (5-10 experts who make actual forecast), staff personnel (prepare, distribute, summarize questionnaires and surveys), respondents
sales force composite: estimate sales at region > review forecast to ensure it's realistic > combine at national level to reach overall forecast
consumer market survey: input from customers/potential customers. also useful in product improvement. can be overly optimistic
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