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Scenario planing (Recommendations recomendtions (help participants to…
Scenario planing
Recommendations
help participants to identify assumptions about the future
invest significant amounts of time and resources in the scenario planning
invest time and effort in preparing participants
remember scenario planing is a iterative process
Probalistic stance
make predictions
best-case scenario
worst-case scenario
percentage terms
normative stance
future should look like
Oxford scenario
based
generate new knowledge
sources of uncertainty
first layer
inmediate business enviroment
second layer
beyond organizations direct influence
recognizing uncertainty
plausibility
Scenario planning
about
contextual factors
macroeconomic
technology
social values
ecology
transactional enviroment
employees
suppliers
lobbies
customers
competitors
larger factors might affect an organization
Oxford approach
characteristics
iterative reframing and reperception
everyone involves should be consider a learner
limited number of scenarios
design to explore different types of weak signals
framed in and framed out
http://3w3search.com/Edu/Merc/Es/GMerc086.htm
http://www.scielo.org.co/pdf/eg/v32n138/v32n138a11.pdf
