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Hedge Fund (Hedge Fund (Hedge funds strategies ** (Relative value &…
Hedge Fund
Hedge Fund
Risks in hedge funds
Hedge fund performance: 難以衡量
配置了大量illiquid asset: Convertible arbitrage
Survivorship bias:關門turnover很高
風險不斷變化: nonlinear,容易操控傳統業績衡量,低頻高損
吸引投資者是因為hedge fund運用不停策略,但會令風險聚集risk converge
94年: 利率 policy急劇上升 98年: LTCM collapse的影響 07-08年: forced liquidation 較高桿杆率
沒有辦法獲得diversification,會面臨很大的credit-driven tail risk
nonlinear: 需要更多考量,asset & liability 方面
Agency problem
本金同agent之間asymmetry關係 (固定管理費) 為左incentive fees選擇更大風險)
解決方法: 高水位,低incentive fees,高fund closure costs (基金經理令基金關門的代價),Force經理投錢進基金入面
Characteristic of hedge funds
Evolution of hedge fund: 87'前期(高淨值客) --> 98'LTCM失敗(退資金) --> 01'互聯網泡沫破裂 --> 02'-10' 機構投資者開始投資(和equity不一樣)
Databases of hedge funds
Self-selection bias 選擇性披露業績
Backfill bias 在index中,當新fund取代deleted,新fund以前的業績只能是模擬回填
Hedge Fund vs Mutual Fund
Hedge funds strategies **
Event driven styles: extreme tails risk( 一但發生有嚴重損失)
Merger arbitrage: 消息公佈後才可以做的策略 capture spreads 前提是收購計劃能完成
Distressed securities: 有財務危機的公司在市場中是折價,賭能不能起死回生,一般是long-biased 只能做多
Relative value & arbitrage-like strategiies
Convertible arbitrage= Long pure bond + long call option 有pricing error 時買可轉債,賣stock(份額是delta neutral) 交易方法是靜態,需調整
Long/ Short equity: 針對版塊,地區,市場,同時坐多坐空,有2個alpha 30-40%都是long/short
Fixed income arbitrage: 只要有利率風險都屬於,桿杆後既long又short
Yield-curve spread 與常態yield curve 的短期偏離
Mortgage spread 提前還款風險
Swap spread 固定浮動利差
Fixed income volatility (Vega)利率的implied volatility
Capital structure / credit arbitrage 股票&債之間的mispricing
Directional hedge fund styles: TREND,benefit from extreme moves
Managed futures (CTAs commodity trading advisors) 利用金融貨幣商品做全球性交易
Systematic trading programs-用不同區域data找自已的market trend
由於一般有futures contract所以有一定量的桿杆
研究下CTAs是market timers(擇時者)大盤trend好就追蹤stock,不好時買入treasury bills,和call option相似
Global macro 找出定價不準的underlying做買賣
(Top-down global approach) 對政治宏觀做分析
Flexibility: 任何市場任何工具
相似性: 都是asset allocation(資產大類),都可以同一系到策略
Niche strategies 利基策略
Dedicated short: 空頭較多頭多,net short exposure 回報和equity 是反相關
Emerging markets: 過渡時期的國家有較多機會,以Long為主 (以人均GDP定義)
Equity market neutral strategy: 達至beta為0
Performing "Due Diligence" on Specific Managers & Funds
過去基金失敗原因: ** 差的投資策略,Fraud,極端事件,缺乏流動性(不能redemption, 抽資),內控體制差(內部交易)
Element
Risk Management Evaluation
Risk,Security Valuation,桿杆流動性,尾部風險,報告,策略一致
Investment Management
Strategy: Style, 集中度, 換手率, Return / Asset under management
Equity ownership: 當自已都持有基金時,會不會優先交易
Track record reliable: 過往業職同策略的一致程度
Manager: Newer (問同事,客,上司),Established (態度,危機應付能力,溝通能力)
Operational Environment
Internal control assessment: Qualification , Ability, Quality
Documentation and disclosure: Original 內容 & update, review all(公開都要)
Service provider evaluation: 外包服務要確保準確
Business Model Risk & Fraud Risk
Business model risk: 現金充足,Working capital 來源(Key Man), 多人redeem的對策,Break-even的AUM規模
Fraud 的potential indicator: 交易是不是獨立,流動性complaints(拿不回錢),官司,內部交易,積極shorting,非流動Asset佔的比率
書: Hedge Fund Analysis An In-Depth Guide To evaluating return Potential & Asset Risk