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Global climate-Vulnerability and resilience (KWH 2001) (Causes of Global…
Global climate-Vulnerability and resilience (KWH 2001)
Causes
of Global climate change Big question: How does
natural
and
human
processes affect
global energy balance
?
Natural
Solar radiation variations
Milankovitch cycle
Consists of Earth's
Eccentricity
(Shape of Earth's orbit around the sun)
Axial tilt
(Inclination of Earth's axis --> Smaller angle causes less variation in temperatures)
Precession
(Change in the orientation of the rotational axis - "wobbling"
Creates
alterations
in the seasonality
of solar radiation reaching the Earth's surface
Global dimming due to
volcanic eruptions
A volcanic eruption
can cause the
ejection of particles
into the atmosphere
Example: Mount Pinatubo 1991 (Philippines)
Estimated
20 million tons
of sulfur dioxide and ash particles blasted
more than 20km high
into the atmosphere.
Formation of sulfate aerosols from sulfur dioxide --> Absorb/scatter large amounts of sunlight (Linger for
3-4 years
)
Ash will block shortwave radiation from sun, reducing the temperature of the atmosphere
Global temperatures dropped by
1 Kelvin over the next 15 months
Particles causing global dimming:
Sulfur
Ashes
Feedback loops
Negative --> Temperature
decreases
Pollution due to cars
1) Cars will release aerosols and dust particles
2) Dust particles will block incoming radiation
from sunlight
3) Aerosols (reflective droplets) will cause an
increase in albedo
Positive --> Temperature
increases
Methane gas release
Ice melt
1) Organic matter is frozen in ice
from the ice age
2) When the ice melts, the organic
matter is released in the form of
methane
3) This will result in the increase in
temp
4) Which will increase the rate of ice melt
Terrestrial albedo
changes
Ice melt
1) As ice in the cryosphere melts, the albedo of ice
decreases (less ice to reflect sunlight)
2) There is an increase in global atmospheric temp
3) More ice melts
Human
Economic
development
Changing consumption patterns
1) The rise of the new global middle class (NGMC)
has increased the amount of people with higher
disposable income
2) These people will lead a better quality of life and
choose proteins over cereal (higher nutrition)
3) Increase in the amount of greenhouse gases
(methane) from livestock
Building of infrastructure
1) There is an increased rate of industralisation
(development of core) to provide a higher
standard of living
2) Increase in deforestation due to alternative
land use
3) Greenhouse gases are also released during
the process of construction and also during the
usage of these infrastructure (e.g. power plant)
Industrial sectors took up 11% more percent from 1965 to 2004, while agricultural sectors dropped 15% in China
Trade
Competition between traders
(e.g. Oil war Canada
vs Saudi Arabia)
1) Competition arises between competing traders
2) Both parties will extract more crude oil
3) Increase in supply will cause oil prices to decrease
4) Consumers are willing to use more oil
5) Results in more greenhouse gas emissions and
depletes natural resources
In 2015 Saudi Arabia extracted 12 million barrels per day.
* Deforestation
1) Increase in trade of agricultural goods between countries
2) Increase in prices of agricultural goods in certain countries
2) Increase in agricultural production to earn more
money
3) Deforestation increase
More than 20%
of the Amazon rainforest is already gone
7900 sqr km lost
between 2017 and 2018
Globalisation
Increase in the amount of waste generated
1) Transportation of goods over long distances/along
supply chain located in diff countries will require packaging
2) Plastic/cardboard is used to store these goods
3) These packaging materials are thrown away on site
4) Increased amount of plastic waste produced
5) Increase in amount of greenhouse gases (e.g. methane
and ethylene) released from degradation of plastic
US package waste more than doubled in 50 years
Increase in the amount of transportation
of
raw materials and food products
1) Increase in the exposure of foreign goods to people
2) Increase in the demand of foreign goods
3) Increase in the amount of transportation of goods
4) Increase in the amount of gasoline used and
greenhouse gases produced.
The atmospheric
system
Layers above atmosphere
Made up of the following layers:
1) Themosphere
2) Mesophere
3) Stratosphere
4) Troposphere
Global energy
balance
Processes involved:
1)
Conduction
-->Transfer of heat by contact
2)
Convection
--> Transfer of energy by movement
of liquid or gases
3)
Radiation
--> Transfer of energy by shortwave
(insolation) and longwave (re-radiation) radiation
4)
Evaporation and condensation
--> Latent energy change
for state change
Link Title
Natural greenhouse
effect
Natural process that serves to heat up
the Earth's surface
Caused by greenhouse gases that absorb
and re-radiate the longwave radiation
Greenhouse gases
include
1)
Water vapour
2)
Methane
(Increase due to
agriculture / ice melt)
3)
Carbon dioxide
(Increase
due to deforestation
4)
Chlorofluorocarbons
(CFCs
from refrigerants)
5)
Nitrous oxide
(Increase due
to the burning of fossil fuels)
Consequences
of Global climate change
Big question: What are the
effects
of
global climate change on
places
,
societies
and
environmental
systems?
Impact on
Hydrosphere
Water stored in ice and
oceans (changing sea levels)
Thermal expansion
causes the water
already in oceans to expand and occupy
more space (
avg rise of 0.13 inches/year
)
Melting glaciers
due to the increase
in ice melt in the summer and
decrease in snowfall in winter. This
causes a
net increase in input of water
into the ocean
The
presence of meltwater
under
and in between ice sheets are speeding
up the rate of melting of glaciers.
Carbon stores in
ice and oceans
Ice melts due to higher temperatures
and create
positive feedback loops
that worsen the situation.
The
increase in acidity
of the ocean
causes the carbonates in the ocean
to react with the acid and
release
carbon dioxide
into the atmosphere
Atmosphere
Increase in incidence
and severity of
severe weather events
Droughts
is defined as a
prolonged period
with abnormally low rainfall
. E.g. Californian
drought from
2011-2017
caused
2011 to 2014
to be the
driest period
in Californian history
Extreme flooding/intense rainfall
occurred which
solved to problem of drought (2017) in California,
but caused the
wettest winter
in almost a century
Biosphere
Spatial changes in
biomes and habitats
Rise in temperatures
changes the geography
of the environment
: e.g. The rise in the amount
of wildfires is observed in California where the
amount of burnt areas have
increased by 5 times
since 1970.
Changes on animal
migration patterns
Earlier springs and later autumns
prompted
the change in migration timings for songbirds.
Migration timings changed by
3 days per
decade since 22 years ago
The increase in global temperatures
has pushed animals to migrate
further
north and to higher altitudes
. Animals
have been travelling
18km north
every
decade and
12km higher (by altitude)
per decade
People
and places
Forced environmental
migration
Sea level rise
due to climate change
can cause low lying islands to submerge,
one of which is the Maldives. Located on
28 coral atolls,
80% of the land
that makes
up the Maldives is
already underwater
,
with already
97% of the island experiencing
soil erosion.
Ocean transport
routes
Negative
Routes will take a long time to form
e.g. It will likely be
2030s where shipping
companies will earn a profit
from these
routes and
big ships can only use the route
in 2050s
Emission from ships (
more polluting
than most transport types) will cause
profound impacts
on the pristine Arctic
environment
Positive
New potential trade routes may be formed,
in the
Arctic
due to melting ice. These routes
would offer up to
40% reduction in distance
than compared to existing routes and be used
for
5% of world trade
.
Health Hazards
Heat stress
linked to climate change is
likely to cause
38,000 extra deaths a year
worldwide between 2030 and 2050
Increase in the amount of CO2 and
temperatures extent duration of pollen
release.
Pollen count is predicted to
double by 2040
and can cause allergies
to worsen or cause others to develop such
an allergy
Vector borne diseases
will increase
due to rising temperatures. Mosquitoes/
ticks will be more abundant due to temp rise
Agriculture
Limits of
cultivation
Higher temperatures limit the growth
of
some crops, such as chocolate. The area
suitable for cultivating chocolate will
decrease by almost 90%
when global
temperatures
rise by 2 degrees
.
Soil erosion
Desertification
due to heatwaves can
reduce the number of plants in the area
which can lead to
higher soil erosion
Crop yields
Droughts
can cause loss in crops due to
a lackluster monsoon (e.g.
70% of crops
in India is affected
by moderate drought)
Increase in CO2 content
can increase
crop growth, but this can lead to a
decrease in nutritional value
Responding
to global climate change
Big question: What are the
possibilities
for
responding to climate change
and
who has
power
over the decision
making process?
Disparities in exposure to climate
change and vulnerability
Link Title
Government led adaptation and
mitigation strategies for global
climate change
Global geopolitical
efforts
Recognise that the
sources
of greenhouse
gases emissions may be
spatially distant
from the countries
most impacted
Kyoto protocol
Introduction date
1997
Success
Member countries had an overall
decrease of 12.5% reduction
in carbon emissions.
Failure
Both the
US and China
, who
did not sign the protocol,
had
41% increase in carbon
emissions
since 1997.
Paris agreement
Introduction date
12 December 2015
Success
The Paris agreement
received explicit
acknowledgement
from
197 countries
that climate change is a serious threat.
Failure
The amounts of carbon emissions pledged
by 187 different countries will achieve
a predicted increase by 2.7 degrees,
more than the goal of 1.5 degrees
that the
agreement seeks to achieve.
No specific date
is set for
a peak in greenhouse gas
emissions
Carbon emissions
offsetting and trading
Offsetting
Reduction in carbon emissions to
compensate for emissions made
elsewhere
Green mark scheme
Launched in
2005
to promote "green
buildings" and
reduce electricity usage.
E.g. National library building
Plant-a-tree program
introduced in 2007 to
reinforce
the importance of reforestation
and increase the number of tress
in Singapore.
Trading
Taxing companies that pass
a certain limit of carbon
emissions
Singapore will start charging
$5.00 per tonne
of carbon
emissions on firms that produce
more than 25,000 tonnes
of
green house gases per year
Technology including
geo-engineering
The deliberate and
large scale
intervention of Earth's climate
system to
mitigate the effects of
climate change
Stratospheric aerosol injection
The ejection of large amounts of
aerosols allows the
reflection
of large amounts of radiation
back into space (similar
to a large volcanic eruption)
Albedo of buildings can be increased
by painting the buildings
bright colours.
Genes can also be introduced to give
crops a
waxy sheen and increase albedo
Civil society and corporate strategies
to address climate change
Case study:
Trucost, a company under S&P global,
compiles a list on companies with
the lowest carbon emissions and
encourages consumers to buy goods
from this stores :forbidden:
