Exchange Rates

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Chap 3: Exchange Rates Part 1

3.2: Money Market Equilibirum

3.1: Exchange Rates and Prices in the Long Run

Law of One Price

states that in the absence of trade frictions (such as transport costs and tariffs), and under conditions of free competition and price flexibility (where no individual seller or buyer has the power to manipulate prices, and prices can freely adjust), identical goods sold in different locations must sell for the same price when prices are expressed in a common currency.

Purchasing Power Parity

o Purchasing power parity (PPP) is a popular metric used by macroeconomic analysts.

• Real Exchange Rate vs Nominal Exchange Rate

• Absolute vs Relative PPP

Definition of Money

3 points: Store of Value, unit of account and medium of exchange

Money Supply

• Quantity Theory of Money Equation

More supply, weaker dollar. More demand stronger dollar

3.3 Monetary Approach

• Forecasting Exchange Rates

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3.5 Monetary Regime and Exchange Rate Regimes

Central Banks

Monetary Regime

Nominal Anchors

o Money Supply Target

o Inflation Target Plus interest rate policy

o Exchange Rate Target

Long-run nominal anchoring and short-run flexibility are the characteristics of the policy framework

Rate of depreciation equals the inflation differential

Inflation equals excess rate of money supply growth above real income growth

Home inflation is home nominal interest rate minus foreign real interest rate

While the nominal exchange rate tells how much foreign currency can be exchanged for a unit of domestic currency, the real exchange rate tells how much the goods and services in the domestic country can be exchanged for the goods and services in a foreign country

Law of One Price vs. Market Imperfections

3.4 Money, Interest Rates and Prices

Real Interest Parity

This remarkable result states the following: if PPP and UIP hold, then expected real interest rates are equalized across countries.

Hyperinflations

Inflation at an extremely high rate (exponentially high)

Fisher Effect

A rise in the expected inflation rate in a country will lead to an equal rise in its nominal interest rate.

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