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SAThesis (Comparaison tools (Metrics (EV/EBITDA, EV/Sales, Dividend Yield,…
SAThesis
Comparaison tools
52 Week high low price
Dividend payout ratio
Decline in revenue not compensated by another product line
Recession proof business (medical,utilities,)
Dividend Yield
Dividend aristocrat/king
FCF
FCF Yield
Net Debt measure
PE/ Forward PE & TTM PE
Metrics
EV/EBITDA
EV/Sales
Dividend Yield
FCF Yield
Recession risk indicators
10Y-3m Yield Curve
The days of inversion
Blackstone confirmation clock
Bianco research model - 10 day inversion
1 month of inversion - David Rice
Campbell Harvey
Morgan Stanley
Portfolio / Stock beta - Volatility indicator
Quality SWAN stock
Compare key metrics & their historical norm
Stock Candidates
The Foot Locker (PE) :red_cross:
Lennar Corporation (PE) :red_cross:
Viacom (PE) :red_cross:
CBS Corporation (PE) :red_cross:
Micron Tech (PE) :red_cross:
Delphi Technologies (PE) :check:
(XRAY) Dentsply Sirona (Low EPS growth) :check:
Newel Brands (Low EPS growth) :red_cross:
Westrock Company (PB) :red_cross:
Important questions
Are these events exception to the norm
What are the long-term prospects
What is the business model ?
How competitive is the industry
What are the latest strategic moves the company has done
What does the company trade at its current multiples
The market is mis-pricing a stock - catalyst that will change the situation
Business Model Issues
Support with numbers
Competitive threats
Support with numbers
Market mispricing
Investment Thesis
Clearly defined in the first paragraph
The drivers of the belief
Reveal the original idea as soon as possible
Strong opinion
Opinion should be based on fact/event
Opinion and Analysis
Opinion of where I think the company is headed
Quantification
It's not just about the company story
Also need to talk about the company's price
We need to backup great company story with numbers & figures.
Margin of Safety
Value investing
Central concept of value investing
Protection again't the unknown unknows
Types of data
Quantitative
SEC Fillings
Data sets
Quote pages
Qualitative
Earning call transcript
Company history
News reports
Don't talk about the obvious
Link to company fillings instead to citing them
Link to sources