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Global Environmental Politics: Climate Change (Globalisation of…
- Global Environmental Politics: Climate Change
Early Environmentalism
- Nature used to be considered beyond the reach of human impacts (yet: silting of rivers, desertification)
- Negative impacts of industrialisation progressively became clear... but still localised
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Climate Change: The Science
- 1896: Greenhouse effect discovered
- 1960s first evidence of increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases
- 1970s First computer models
- 1988 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
- 1990 First assessment report: "temperature increase consistent with climate models but also within climate variability"
Changes at scale
- Sudden increase in average temperatures around the world
- Sea levels rise around the world - ice melting and termal expansion
- Crazy weather
Climate Change: The politics
- 1987 World Conference on Environment: Sustainable Development
- 1988 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
- 1992 "Earth Summit' in Rio de Janeiro produced UN Framework Convention on Climate Change - "Common but differentiated responsibilities"
COP-3 Kyoto 1997
- Negotiated Protocol to provide targets for Uniten Nations Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
- EU pushing for higher targets
- US conscious of comparative disadvantage
- Developed countries committed to reduction of 5.1% respective of 1990 levels by 2012
- Barely 50% of emissions covered
COP-15 Copenhagen 2009
- Media attention enormous, seeking top-down management of the problema as with an env. treaty
- GFC in full swing makes countries scared of commitments - No decisive legislation in US, stalemate with China, EU again presented ambitious targets but was an outlier
- Yet: reception of voluntary commitments with some differentiation - 2C goal 80% of emissions covered, reach USD 100bn/y climate finance by 2020 (30bn between 2011/2012)
COP-21 Paris 2015
- Solar modules fall 75% in price; wind becomes cheapest source of energy
- Obama's second sitting
- China undeniable top annual emitter now, agreement with USA
- Expectations managed: Nationally determined contributions
- 1.5C taget (96% emissions) similar to Copenhagen!
Traditional Theories
Realism:
- UNFCCC's "differentiated responsibilities" means relative gains and losses
- Yet EU too eager to tackle it...
Neo-liberal Institutionalism:
- Well-designed regimes (international organisations/institutions) can help states overcome first-mover problems
- Yet UNFCCC has not delivered...
New Agenda
Critical Theory:
- Another symptom the world is not well run, mostly benefits the few; problem is fundamental
- Maybe states/IOs are the problem
Constuctivism:
- Not all states have 'constructed' climate change as an immense burden
- Germany: huge coal reserves, love of extremely polluting cars, yet aspires to leadership. Other European countries follow suit
- Who said that states and IOs are the only thing that matters?
New (?) Actors: Companies
Tesla, Exxonmobil etc.
Merchants of Doubt
Big Tobacco:
- Cancer happens for many reasons
- Can't prove tobacco link with 100% certainty
Big Oil:
- Climate changes for many reasons
- Can't prove anthropogenic emissions link with 100% certainty
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