Early Environmentalism

• Nature used to be considered beyond the reach of human impacts (yet: silting of rivers, desertification)
• Negative impacts of industrialisation progressively became clear... but still localised

Climate Change: The Science

• 1896: Greenhouse effect discovered
• 1960s first evidence of increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases
• 1970s First computer models
• 1988 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
• 1990 First assessment report: "temperature increase consistent with climate models but also within climate variability"

June 1972 UN Conference on Human Environment, Stockholm

Changes at scale

• Sudden increase in average temperatures around the world
• Sea levels rise around the world - ice melting and termal expansion
• Crazy weather

Climate Change: The politics

• 1987 World Conference on Environment: Sustainable Development
• 1988 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
• 1992 "Earth Summit' in Rio de Janeiro produced UN Framework Convention on Climate Change - "Common but differentiated responsibilities"

COP-3 Kyoto 1997

• Negotiated Protocol to provide targets for Uniten Nations Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
• EU pushing for higher targets
• US conscious of comparative disadvantage
• Developed countries committed to reduction of 5.1% respective of 1990 levels by 2012
• Barely 50% of emissions covered

COP-15 Copenhagen 2009

• Media attention enormous, seeking top-down management of the problema as with an env. treaty
• GFC in full swing makes countries scared of commitments - No decisive legislation in US, stalemate with China, EU again presented ambitious targets but was an outlier
• Yet: reception of voluntary commitments with some differentiation - 2C goal 80% of emissions covered, reach USD 100bn/y climate finance by 2020 (30bn between 2011/2012)

COP-21 Paris 2015

• Solar modules fall 75% in price; wind becomes cheapest source of energy
• Obama's second sitting
• China undeniable top annual emitter now, agreement with USA
• Expectations managed: Nationally determined contributions
• 1.5C taget (96% emissions) similar to Copenhagen!

Realism:

• UNFCCC's "differentiated responsibilities" means relative gains and losses
• Yet EU too eager to tackle it...

Neo-liberal Institutionalism:

• Well-designed regimes (international organisations/institutions) can help states overcome first-mover problems
• Yet UNFCCC has not delivered...