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Lesson 3: Forecasting (7 types of forecasting design (Select forecasting…
Lesson 3: Forecasting
7 types of forecasting design
Select forecasting model(s)
Gather the data needed to make forecast
Determine the time horizon of forecast
Make forecast
Select item's to be forecasted
Validate & implement results
Determine use of forecast
Challenges
Seldom perfect
outside factors that we cannot predict/control often impact the forecast
Most techniques assume there is some underlying stability in system
Types of forecasting methods
Qualitative forecasting method
made based on judgement, experience & opinions
Jury of executive opinion
Delphi method
Sales force composite
Consumer market survey
Quantitative forecasting method
made based on past numerical data (statistics to analyze the data)
Time-series models
Trend Projection
Moving Averages
Seasonal Variation
Associative Methods
Sensitivity Analysis