Fundamental uncertainties in projects and the scope of project management
Management of uncertainty
certain projects require tolerating vagueness
need less tangible and more generic management processes so companies have cultures that can operate with high levels of uncertainty/risk
good project management = good uncertainty management = clarifying what needs to be done, what can be done and ensuring it gets done
but common practice doesn't consider the range of uncertainties different projects have
3 key areas of uncertainty
Uncertainty in estimates
Uncertainty associated with project parties
existence of multiple parties like employees
Uncertainty associated with stages of project lifecycle
eg. stage of conceiving the product has uncertainty in level of definition and managing stakeholder expectations
How to manage:
treat definitions of objectives as key part
clarify trade-offs between multiple performance criteria
allocate different uncertainties to different parties
Hard and soft projects
Limited scoped of conventional project management
PMs don't consider all uncertainties of all stages in project lifecycle
strategic issues not taught but they contain a lot of uncertainty
PM considered to be about getting things done instead of asking whether the right things are being done, why the project should proceed and what performance criteria should be used + objectives can be unclear and changing but getting things done assumes they are pre-determined
Hard vs Soft
Implications of 'softness' for scope of project management
tools for projects at hard end of spectrum; clarity and certainty may not be desirable projects at soft end of spectrum
Thiry defines uncertainty as lack of data and ambiguity as multiple and conflicting interpretations; uncertainty can be reduced by collecting more data while ambiguity can be resolved by sensemaking and exchange of views
well-defined vs multiple objectives and expectations
tangible vs intangible end products
boundaries for scope rigid vs changeable
The role of trust
quantitative vs qualitative measures
softness requires form of evaluation that asserts the validity of multiple worldviews and perspectives
temporary relationships more likely in projects than in routine operations so trust becomes more important
need to balance trust and control; if one increases, the other decreases
Supporting organisational capabilities
PM activities take places in a wider organisational context so efforts to broaden scope of PM need to consider it
need to be a learning organisation that facilitates communication and sharing of knowledge
don't want 'conspiracies of optimism', 'macho management' and blame culture if you want effect uncertainty management
Knowledge management and learning are major contributors to uncertainty management
Learning from experience:
Learn from experience and estimate by using data on past projects
Need to reflect after projects
Using same levels of performance expectations as hard projects for soft projects can hinder learning from experience cos may be classified as failures which discourages transfer of learning cos of stigma around failure
control and uncertainty reduction may not be desirable in soft projects