Fundamental uncertainties in projects and the scope of project management

Management of uncertainty

certain projects require tolerating vagueness

need less tangible and more generic management processes so companies have cultures that can operate with high levels of uncertainty/risk

good project management = good uncertainty management = clarifying what needs to be done, what can be done and ensuring it gets done

but common practice doesn't consider the range of uncertainties different projects have

3 key areas of uncertainty

Uncertainty in estimates

Uncertainty associated with project parties

existence of multiple parties like employees

Uncertainty associated with stages of project lifecycle

eg. stage of conceiving the product has uncertainty in level of definition and managing stakeholder expectations

How to manage:

treat definitions of objectives as key part

clarify trade-offs between multiple performance criteria

allocate different uncertainties to different parties

Hard and soft projects

Limited scoped of conventional project management

PMs don't consider all uncertainties of all stages in project lifecycle

strategic issues not taught but they contain a lot of uncertainty

PM considered to be about getting things done instead of asking whether the right things are being done, why the project should proceed and what performance criteria should be used + objectives can be unclear and changing but getting things done assumes they are pre-determined

Hard vs Soft

Implications of 'softness' for scope of project management

tools for projects at hard end of spectrum; clarity and certainty may not be desirable projects at soft end of spectrum

Thiry defines uncertainty as lack of data and ambiguity as multiple and conflicting interpretations; uncertainty can be reduced by collecting more data while ambiguity can be resolved by sensemaking and exchange of views

well-defined vs multiple objectives and expectations

tangible vs intangible end products

boundaries for scope rigid vs changeable

The role of trust

quantitative vs qualitative measures

softness requires form of evaluation that asserts the validity of multiple worldviews and perspectives

temporary relationships more likely in projects than in routine operations so trust becomes more important

need to balance trust and control; if one increases, the other decreases

Supporting organisational capabilities

PM activities take places in a wider organisational context so efforts to broaden scope of PM need to consider it

need to be a learning organisation that facilitates communication and sharing of knowledge

don't want 'conspiracies of optimism', 'macho management' and blame culture if you want effect uncertainty management

Knowledge management and learning are major contributors to uncertainty management

Learning from experience:

Learn from experience and estimate by using data on past projects

Need to reflect after projects

Using same levels of performance expectations as hard projects for soft projects can hinder learning from experience cos may be classified as failures which discourages transfer of learning cos of stigma around failure

control and uncertainty reduction may not be desirable in soft projects