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Uncertainty (Outline (Example (can go wrong (Traffic, Accident, Car break…
Uncertainty
Outline
Agents keep track of
Belief Status
Represent all Possible world status
Agents make backup plans (contingency )
Main drawback is too much logic
Example
Go to airport to catch flight at 10 a.m
can go wrong
Traffic
Accident
Car break down
A dragon come and burn the car
Diagnosis
LOGIC FAILS
Laziness
Theoretical ignorance
Practical ignorance
Typical of judgemental domains
Probability theory
Probability vs Logic
both describe world composed of facts
But Logic says
TRUE/FALSE
Probability has
degree
of belief
Probability provides way of summarizing the uncertainty that comes from our laziness and ignorance
Utility theory
every state has a degree of usefulness
To make choices
agent must have PREFERENCES
regard to OUTCOMES
Decision theory
probability theory + utility theory
Rational decision = Importance of
the goals + the likelihood of achieving them