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Assess the reasons why the DUP have now emerged as the leading unionist…
Assess the reasons why the DUP have now emerged as the leading unionist party?
Trimble
97' Trimble's peace talks with Sinn Fein = brave but problematic:
the IRA had not yet decommissioned (surrendered)
WC unionists - Trimble = 'traitor' to the cause of unionism
3.DUP claimed Trimble is "in bed the SF/IRA" - conversing w/ enemy
1998: Trimble's zenith
UUP 28 MLAs
1st minister
wins Nobel Peace prize
"Trimble destroyed UUP"- David Burnside
TRAILBLAZER but left behind all grassroots fundamentalist voters
St Andrews
2003 assembly DUP win election w/ 30 MLAs
06'- Blair last political seduction = focusing on bringing the far ends of the spectrum into power sharing DUP/SF not agreeable SDLP/UUP
06' IRA disbanded + Paisley claimed victory "democracy has won the day" so DUP= successful
Reg Empey SAA = "GFA for slow learners" - all available in GFA yet UUP to be sidelined for 'peace' = frustration
UUP went into political meltdown + no other unionist party emerged to create meaningful opposition for DUP rose to great dominance
PUP = links to UVF TUV = one man band "thorn" in DUPs side NI21= soft unionist vehicle that imploded due to "inappropriate behaviour" allegations vs McCrea
UUP off. Oppositon
Nesbitt tried to give party new direction but 2017 assembly suspension made UUP invisible
Electoral pacts
4 constituencies - DUP/UUP pact for only 1 major unionist candidate
vote management
North Belfast = DUP got East Belfast= DUP got
Fermanagh and south tyrone = UUP got Newry and Armagh = UUP lost
in pacts - DUP tend to profit
DUP-lite
protestant extremism to more middle ground
DUP go into gvmt w/SF: Ian Paisley "not sit down with the bloodthirsty monsters who have been killing my people" yet <10 years later "chuckle brothers"
Arlene Foster attended Ulster GAA final + stood for Irish nation anthem
in 2000 SW called GAA "sporting wing of the IRA"
2012 Irish minister Simon Coveney spoke at DUP conference
BUT - red lines (social conservatism)
Still oppose: gay marriage, abortion, ILA
05+ UUP poorly led
Reg Empey 5-10
UCUNF pact w/ conservatives was confusing
Sylvia Herman - only MP -left party
Mike Nesbitt 12-17
UUP= "leading mice at a crossroads"
John McCallister + Basil McCrea left to form NI21
Robin Swann
little impact from 17+ due to collapse of assembly
Tom Elliot 10-11
United Ireland supporters " scum of SF"
repetitive faltering highlighted UUP insecurity vs the steadfast DUP
DUP electoral machine
Strong leadership -3/50yrs
Peter Robinson = strategist
Arlene Foster = NI lady BUT lost cred after RHI
Ian Paisely= charismatic
DUP stole best UUP best politicians - "Foster was the biggest single loss to the party... At some point, she will lead the DUP"
Media management
all politicians "singing from the same hymn sheet" CR
HoC John Robinson keeps party in line - £1000 fines for speaking out so UUP stated "bordering on racism"
BUT: Jonathon Bell rebelled on Nolan show and attacked Arlene Foster over RHI - Bell conceded "political career is finished"
YET
Ian Paisley Jr. 30 day suspension from commons - undeclared Sri Lankan fees
PLUS 2017+ Confidence and supply agreement with tories has compromised the impartiality of the UK gvmt so DUP is seen as more viable/successful than UUP to unionist voters
ANALYSIS CONC
DUP has made so many catastrophic mistakes yet still, UUP has not made an impact - to sidelined + irrelevant from revolving for od leadership??
RHI
SW climate change denial
IPJr
Brexit - denying NI voice
Therefore: having overcome these unscathed it seems the fear of a united Ireland is greater than the logic for an accountable executive.
DUP has a monopoly within unionist voters
rising nationalist pop. + loss of overall unionist majority in 2017 = fear tactics
Foster = "vote for mike and you'll get Michelle"
diluting unionist strongholds