Assess the reasons why the DUP have now emerged as the leading unionist party?

Trimble

97' Trimble's peace talks with Sinn Fein = brave but problematic:

  1. the IRA had not yet decommissioned (surrendered)
  1. WC unionists - Trimble = 'traitor' to the cause of unionism

3.DUP claimed Trimble is "in bed the SF/IRA" - conversing w/ enemy

1998: Trimble's zenith

UUP 28 MLAs

1st minister

wins Nobel Peace prize

"Trimble destroyed UUP"- David Burnside

St Andrews

2003 assembly DUP win election w/ 30 MLAs

06'- Blair last political seduction = focusing on bringing the far ends of the spectrum into power sharing DUP/SF not agreeable SDLP/UUP

06' IRA disbanded + Paisley claimed victory "democracy has won the day" so DUP= successful

Reg Empey SAA = "GFA for slow learners" - all available in GFA yet UUP to be sidelined for 'peace' = frustration

UUP off. Oppositon

Electoral pacts

UUP went into political meltdown + no other unionist party emerged to create meaningful opposition for DUP rose to great dominance

4 constituencies - DUP/UUP pact for only 1 major unionist candidate

vote management

North Belfast = DUP got East Belfast= DUP got

Fermanagh and south tyrone = UUP got Newry and Armagh = UUP lost

in pacts - DUP tend to profit

DUP-lite

protestant extremism to more middle ground

DUP go into gvmt w/SF: Ian Paisley "not sit down with the bloodthirsty monsters who have been killing my people" yet <10 years later "chuckle brothers"

Arlene Foster attended Ulster GAA final + stood for Irish nation anthem

2012 Irish minister Simon Coveney spoke at DUP conference

in 2000 SW called GAA "sporting wing of the IRA"

BUT - red lines (social conservatism)

Still oppose: gay marriage, abortion, ILA

05+ UUP poorly led

Reg Empey 5-10

UCUNF pact w/ conservatives was confusing

Sylvia Herman - only MP -left party

Mike Nesbitt 12-17

UUP= "leading mice at a crossroads"

John McCallister + Basil McCrea left to form NI21

Robin Swann

Tom Elliot 10-11

United Ireland supporters " scum of SF"

PUP = links to UVF TUV = one man band "thorn" in DUPs side NI21= soft unionist vehicle that imploded due to "inappropriate behaviour" allegations vs McCrea

Nesbitt tried to give party new direction but 2017 assembly suspension made UUP invisible

DUP electoral machine

Strong leadership -3/50yrs

Peter Robinson = strategist

Arlene Foster = NI lady BUT lost cred after RHI

Ian Paisely= charismatic

DUP stole best UUP best politicians - "Foster was the biggest single loss to the party... At some point, she will lead the DUP"

Media management

all politicians "singing from the same hymn sheet" CR

HoC John Robinson keeps party in line - £1000 fines for speaking out so UUP stated "bordering on racism"

BUT: Jonathon Bell rebelled on Nolan show and attacked Arlene Foster over RHI - Bell conceded "political career is finished"

YET

Ian Paisley Jr. 30 day suspension from commons - undeclared Sri Lankan fees

TRAILBLAZER but left behind all grassroots fundamentalist voters

ANALYSIS CONC

DUP has made so many catastrophic mistakes yet still, UUP has not made an impact - to sidelined + irrelevant from revolving for od leadership??

RHI

SW climate change denial

IPJr

Brexit - denying NI voice

little impact from 17+ due to collapse of assembly

repetitive faltering highlighted UUP insecurity vs the steadfast DUP

DUP has a monopoly within unionist voters

rising nationalist pop. + loss of overall unionist majority in 2017 = fear tactics

Foster = "vote for mike and you'll get Michelle"

diluting unionist strongholds

Therefore: having overcome these unscathed it seems the fear of a united Ireland is greater than the logic for an accountable executive.

PLUS 2017+ Confidence and supply agreement with tories has compromised the impartiality of the UK gvmt so DUP is seen as more viable/successful than UUP to unionist voters