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Population Growth (Role of Population (Population Growth Background…
Population Growth
Role of Population
Vicious Circle Model
- Dasgupta (1995)
- Attempts to explain sustained high fertility rates as natural resources are declining - is best known example trying to tie population, development and environment together
- Positive feedback loops --> downward spiral of population growth
- Model is based upon:
- Neo-Malthusian ideas
- ill-defined/enforced property rights to resources (i.e. open access)
- High fertility rates
Fertility: Evidence suggest fertility rates are declining everywhere towards a similar number around 2.0 by 2095; right now, however, African continent has much higher fertility rates (around 4) compared to ROTW
Mechanism underlying VCM (De Sherbinin et al, 2007):
- Poverty --> increased demand for children (low cost of supply) --> High Fertility --> Population growth and thus increased demand for natural resources --> declining per capita resource levels (if resource base is static - think of cases where it's not?) --> environmental degradation --> increased incentives for short-term exploitation + lack of access to inputs and technologies to raise productivity --> poverty --> cycle repeats
Banjeree and Duflo (2011) look at why poverty --> high fertility:
- They look at the supply side costs of having children versus the demand side benefits
- Supply side costs:
- Resources and investments: there's a quantity-quality trade off - more children you have means less invested in each individual (Becker), but B&D find limited evidence; can invest in many children
- Gender Bias (women bear the cost of having children, women have weaker bargaining position)
- Conjugal Bonds: If weak, then the costs of having children to father are low
- Earnings: The OC of having children; now women more often entering workforce --> increased cost of having children
- Kinship Ties: Where high, the cost of having children better dispersed throughout community
- Demand side benefits:
- Production: Help on farm/with remmitances when older
- Risk and 'insurance': High infant mortality rate means need more children, plus more children means more likely for parents to be supported in their old age
- Social norms and cultural demands: there's a preference for boys --> if keep having girls, keep trying for boy + culturally, if many children is the norm, you also have many children
- 'Consumption': having kids is fun, can get welfare boost from them
Evidence for VCM
- Assumptions of VCM: if challenged, it may not support downward spiral hypothesis
- E.g. if non-static resource base is present
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Easter Island Model
- Brander and Taylor (1998)
- Shows arrival of population and increasing population leading to decreasing resource stock
- Population peaks in time with the period of intense rock carving
- Population then declines as resource stocks are low; fond Mataa weapon and evidence of canibalism at this time
Is population growth a concern for environmental development?
YES:
- Aligned with Malthusian thinking
NO:- I=PAT: Impact = Population x Affluence (income per capita) x Technology in Use
- Interaction effect means that population may not be a major cause
- Need to look at where the resources extracted by poor, fast growing countries are being consumed; often in wealthy countries; suggests population growth less importance than affluence
- The VCP can be broken, depending on initial state of equilibrium; access to resources determines impact of
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Past Questions:
- Critically assess the extent to which population growth might be a 'problem' for environment and development.
- Assess extent to which pop growth might be an issue for environment and development
Both same style; looking at issues for environment due to pop growth.
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