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16 capital market expectations (challenges (limitations of economic data,…
16 capital market expectations
framework
challenges
limitations of economic data
data measurement errors and biases
limitations of historical estimates
ex post risk can be a biased measure of ex ante risk
biases in analysts' methods
failure to account for conditioning info
misinterpretation of correlations
psychological traps
model uncertainty
economic analysis
business cycles analysis
economic growth trends
exogenous shocks
international interactions
economic forecasting
using economic info in forecasting asset class returns
info sources for economic data and forecasts
tools for mormulating
formal tools
statistical methods
discounted cash flow models
the risk premium approach
financial market equilibrium models
survey and panel methods
judgment