conscious formal act of making of sense of the world through the controlled deliberate application of logic to problems, decisions and judgements

decisions- hindsight bias- tendency to overestimate predictability of the decision once they know what the outcome is

judgements- assessment of the likelihood of an event occurring based on incomplete information

judgements- likelihood, evidence, accuracy (algorithm) - our brains our too slow to rely on these so we rely on heuristics and bias to guide judgements

mandel 2005- availability and presentation of information, probability should be the same but risk assessment was influence by unpacking the description and the time frames

Lerner et al 2003- judgements influenced by emotion e.g. fearfulness= attack, redeemer et al 1996- limited info about diagnosis= wrong diagnosis

Tversky an Koehler 1994- support theory - biased towards aspects they have a strong feelings about - related to the availability heuristic

availability heuristic- relies on memory available at the time of the judgements,

Pauchur et al. 2012- 3 influences on the application of availability 1- own erect experience, 2- affect heuristic, 3- media coverage and social information

people are more likely to ignore base rate information wen they have no personal knowledge/ experience of the event occurrence

Khanemman and Tversky 1972-taxi cab problem- 41% base rate is different

familiarityy and casual knowledge can override base rate neglect - Krynski and Teenenbaum 2007. motivation- we use base rate when its in our interest you- ditto et al 1998

objects or events belong to the same category because they are similar - swindles 2003

deductive- conclusions follow from the premises that the assumptions it is based on are true - reasoning from specific facts to a conclusion

conditional reasoning- we daw a conclusion from IF- THEN propositions

syllogistic- reasoning is one form - a conclusion is inferred from a premise or premises (essentially a statement about something)

atmosphere bias- Woolworth and sellers- if there at least one negative in the premise then the negative solution is preferred- atmosphere of truth is created

belief bias- if the syllogism fits our prior beliefs then it willl be judged to be valid

show that content or content influences decision process, omission bias- real world applications

decisions: omission bias- consequentialist- judging harmful actins as worse than inaction would indeed be inconsistent, deontologists- moral distinction between doing and allowing

riot and baron 1990- vaccination- most parents would not vaccinate if risk rate of harm was more than 5 in 10,1000

baron and riot 2004- action commission bias - 22% commission bias- dont just sit there, do something

cross cultural differences - abarbarnell and hauler 2010- omission bias is more common in more educated groups , poorly educated= socially orientated

emotion and social context- negative emotions can increase our aversion to loss - shiv et al 2005, positive emotions- broader more flexible thinking and solutions to a problem more obvious - fredrickson 2006

jusftify our jobs - camera et al 1997- biased by expectations - thwarts et al 2004

wason in a social context- over simplify reasoning tasks over modularise the brain, inaccurate understanding of evolution however- we often do perform better with social contextual information

rationality- logic, poor at deductive reasoning - normativism- human thinking reflects a normative system one confirming to norms or standards against which it would be measured and judged but correct solutions rarely occur in real life- Sternberg 2011, human reasoning is largely probabilistic oaskford and chater 2009