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Thinking and Reasoning (we are able to do deliberate thinking but are not…
Thinking and Reasoning
we are able to do deliberate thinking but are not good at making rational judgement but we are rational sort of
conscious formal act of making of sense of the world through the controlled deliberate application of logic to problems, decisions and judgements
decisions- hindsight bias- tendency to overestimate predictability of the decision once they know what the outcome is
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judgements- likelihood, evidence, accuracy (algorithm) - our brains our too slow to rely on these so we rely on heuristics and bias to guide judgements
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mandel 2005- availability and presentation of information, probability should be the same but risk assessment was influence by unpacking the description and the time frames
Lerner et al 2003- judgements influenced by emotion e.g. fearfulness= attack, redeemer et al 1996- limited info about diagnosis= wrong diagnosis
Tversky an Koehler 1994- support theory - biased towards aspects they have a strong feelings about - related to the availability heuristic
availability heuristic- relies on memory available at the time of the judgements,
Pauchur et al. 2012- 3 influences on the application of availability 1- own erect experience, 2- affect heuristic, 3- media coverage and social information
people are more likely to ignore base rate information wen they have no personal knowledge/ experience of the event occurrence
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familiarityy and casual knowledge can override base rate neglect - Krynski and Teenenbaum 2007. motivation- we use base rate when its in our interest you- ditto et al 1998
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induction- forming conclusion based on previous example even though they might be probable likely but not certain, generalisations - shepherds law 1987, premise similarity - osherson et al 1990
deductive- conclusions follow from the premises that the assumptions it is based on are true - reasoning from specific facts to a conclusion
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syllogistic- reasoning is one form - a conclusion is inferred from a premise or premises (essentially a statement about something)
atmosphere bias- Woolworth and sellers- if there at least one negative in the premise then the negative solution is preferred- atmosphere of truth is created
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Carson 1968 selection task - judgemnts= heuristics, people use inductive not deductive reasoning
unclear which info is important in a given problem space , human heuristics and bias are not errors they are short cuts
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de neys 2012- system 1 - heuristics and logical thinking, system 2 - deliberate thinking- intuitive heuristic logical system explains how a conflicts detached but doesn't explain why
reasoning limited: decisions not made in a social or emotional vacuum, errors may reflect artificiality of the problem
moral judgements- trolley tram train problem - most chose to pull the lever - consequentialism (greatest good, least harm) deontological - highest morality acting to killing is wrong , trolley problems are high critiqued for being artificial and restricted in choice
show that content or content influences decision process, omission bias- real world applications
decisions: omission bias- consequentialist- judging harmful actins as worse than inaction would indeed be inconsistent, deontologists- moral distinction between doing and allowing
riot and baron 1990- vaccination- most parents would not vaccinate if risk rate of harm was more than 5 in 10,1000
baron and riot 2004- action commission bias - 22% commission bias- dont just sit there, do something
cross cultural differences - abarbarnell and hauler 2010- omission bias is more common in more educated groups , poorly educated= socially orientated
emotion and social context- negative emotions can increase our aversion to loss - shiv et al 2005, positive emotions- broader more flexible thinking and solutions to a problem more obvious - fredrickson 2006
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wason in a social context- over simplify reasoning tasks over modularise the brain, inaccurate understanding of evolution however- we often do perform better with social contextual information
rationality- logic, poor at deductive reasoning - normativism- human thinking reflects a normative system one confirming to norms or standards against which it would be measured and judged but correct solutions rarely occur in real life- Sternberg 2011, human reasoning is largely probabilistic oaskford and chater 2009
simon 1945- thinking'sg is pragmatic, what matters the fit between the actors mind and their environment
decsisions- loss aversion, framing, sunk cost , omission
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contextual fatos are more important in informal reasoning - from an authority is more plausible and persuasive
informal reasoning - probable, formal = binary
oaks ford and han 2004- 1 degree of previous belief, 2 positive arguments have more impact than negative ones, 3 strength of evidence
motivations to influence and improve dont always help, limited resources, we get it wrong, experts get it wrong- why reasoning is limited
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tripartite model - stanovoch 2012- type 1- autonomous mind processing is fast and automatic, type 2- processing two major forms: algorithmic mind - informationn about rules and the reflected mind- make use of individuals goals
produce incorrect answers- lack the minder within the algorithmic mind to override incorrect heuristics, have the necessary minder but have insufficient processing capacity to override type 1 processing, have thenevessary minder but fit to ue it because its se id not trigged by the reflective mind- drystratinality occurs
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