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Assess the reasons for the changes in support for Sinn Fein since 1994…
Assess the reasons for the changes in support for Sinn Fein since 1994 [25]
Electoral machine
Leadership
Adams = strategist
McGuinness = Long political history/ patient
O'Neill = Female/non-IRA
Finance
2017 £1 million
2009-11 $1.5 million
Equality
moral high ground
Gay marriage
Irish language act
Vote management
4/5 West Belfast MLAs
Background
Humes/Adams 1988 talks
"brought in from cold" / provided legitimacy
SDLP didn't call SF bluff on decommissioning
didn't highlight -IRA involvement = weakness
2006 SAA marginalised SDLP as irrelevant party
Blair 'political seduction' to fix SF
SDLP will show @ assembly
after SSA SF gained 4 MLAs + SDLP lost 2 from 2003 to 2007 elections
SDLP stuck in 1998 GFA - SF evolved to form 'radical' party on the back of nationalistic martyrdom from 10 hunger strikers - SDLP "chatted", SF died for cause
Sinn Fein lite
"A vote for SF was no longer a vote for the IRA"
electable + statesmanlike =
2015: Adams (parachute) Charles
2012: McGuinness / Queen handshake
SF needed to show serious intentions for peace ... de-commissioned weapons + IRA disbanded 2006
SF linked to an IRA: Northern bank robbery McCartney murder
BUT ... LAPSES
2015
Gerry Kelly sectarian headcount leaflets
2016
Gerry Adams "Ballymurphy n*!&£ "
2018
Barry McElduff resign - Kingsmill
SDLP poor management 01+
MR 10-11
"wooden"
"a suicide note for the SDLP" - political quip
embarrasing senior rebellion -> resigned
AMc 11-15
out-of-touch
"nationalism is not going towards SF"???
called for MP pay rise
SDLP lost Conall McDevitt
MD 01-10
kept 3 MPs
"stopped SF juggernaut"
"SDLP tribute band"
~despite~ SF/IRA involvement in '07 SF vote ++ from 'bread and butter' manifesto
++ stolen from SDLP manifesto
e.g education + rural issues
CE 15+
cult of youth
'98->'16 votes decreased by 95,000
SDLP 3M's
M
iddle aged
2/3 members "inactive" / 45+
M
iddle of the road
SDLP~GFA party + after GFA lost ownership of equality agenda to SF - gay rights
M
iddle class
professional nationalist vote
as final option CE now entered SDLP in agreement with Fianna Fail
++ all Ireland appeal through common approaches and political vision
-ive losing KEY Claire Hanna
(A) what has changed? same candidates under SDLP banner, UCUNF failure, pitted against 32 county centralised SF
121 - 53 votes, broad but divided