Superpowers

What are superpowers/How have they changed over time?

Factors contributing to a superpower

Military Power

using the military to protect themselves and to project power over other places/Maintaining control

Many superpowers are nuclear nations

Physical Size/Geographical Position

Linked to resources in the country = Russia has huge gas/oil reserves/USA has huge oil reserves. This means that the price is low in the country and that the country is not dependent upon other nations for energy

Economic Power

Essential base of a superpower - ability to form a military or invest in new technology

The world's largest 10 economies

Earn 65% Global GDP

Control Investment

Have powerful currencies

Use strength to dominate global financial organisations e.g. WB/IMF

Provide and therefore control global aid budget

Demographic

Population size and structure influences economic growth e.g. availability of a young workforce in China/India, the need for immigration in the UK

Political Factors

Having membership of IGOs such as...

OECD - the largest 35 economies meet annually

G8 and G20 - both significant in making changes across the globe

The World Economic Forum - meets in Davos each year to decide global economic policies

The UN security council - Especially permanent states (UK,FRA,USA,CHN,RUS)

Cultural Influence

the appeal of a country's way of life/ideologies. Spread through: Music, Fashion, Art, Media, Democracy

Theories of why power changed over time

Mackinder's Geo-Strategic Location Theory

Advantages

Disadvantages

Seems to ignore the growth of the US

Makese no account for resource rich nations such as the Middle East

Some modern accuracy with the UK

A theory that whoever controlled europe and asia, controlled the rest of the world. He believed that the heartland could shift as a result of sea power. He acknowledged that Russia should be the world's superpower, but they are disadvantaged by having too many national borders, and a coastline that is predominantly frozen in winter

The economic centre of gravity

Show how the centre of economic activity has changed since 1AD

The centre is pulled towards the region with the largest GDP = map shows industrial revolution + growth of the US

Shift in the latter half of the 20th century reflects the recovery of Europe post WW2

The United States

Military

2nd largest army w. 1.5million personnel

Annual defence budget of $597.9bn (2016)

Nuclear nation

Leading member of NATO

Physical Size and Geographical Location

4th largest nation on earth

Only shares 2 land borders

Position makes it very difficult to attack

Significant resources incl. oil/iron ore/coal

Economic

World's Largest GDP of $11 trillion

163/500 largest TNCs

Huge domestic market = 30% world's economic consumption

Demographic

3rd most populous nation on earth

Relatively young population due to relatively high levels of immigration

Low Population density

Political

Leading role in most IGOs

Permanent Member of UN security council

lead member of NAFTA

British Empire

Cultural

Dominant in world of fashion, media, tech, film, music

Often viewed as global centre of democracy, freedom - American Dream

History

Roots of the age of discovery in 1400s

Est. trading routes/trading companies to finance voyages for commodities such as tea, sugar, spices

raw materials brought back to UK cities

Britain a key player in the trans-american slave trade

How did we maintain control?

Technology

Britain had latest military tech with ships, guns, explosives. often were fighting primitive technology

Cultural Values

British inventions such as the railway, legal systems, sport, english language were introduced all over the world

Domestic Support

Brits believed in their moral and cultural superiority. Were taught the successes of the empire in school

Military power

Rebellions were frequent. They were put down with great force

Why did it decline?

Increasing competition from France, Germany, US

Increasing military and economic cooperation from within Europe

Economic Cost of financing 2 world wars

Loss of support at home. People didn't believe that it was right

Lack of military strength = rebellions were frequent

Cold war - BIPOLAR world

Underlying developments

Rapid US industrialisation following civil war in 1860s. Became world's largest economy in 1908

Russian revolution of 1917 = world's first communist state. Rapid industrialisation followed

Europe was split between 2 alliances

USSR = Warsaw pact

USA = NATO

Both organisations promised guaranteed military support if attacked

Eastern Europe was politically independent, but controlled from moscow

Western Europe had huge financial support following WW2

In US, there was a propaganda war against communism

both sides never came into contact, but had multiple proxy wars and almost did during the Cuban missile crisis

Indirect control and neocolonialism

Indirect control = controlling countries that have political independence but economic dependence

Strategic alliances

military alliances between developing nation and superpower = developing nation is dependent upon super power support

Aid

Foreign aid is often met with conditionality = often to open up markets or agree to policies set by the donor

TNC investment

investment creates jobs/wealth, however, this is dependent upon friendly relationships

Terms of trade

Low export prices vs high import prices (Frank's developement theory)

Debt

Developing countries which owe debt become reliant upon the donor

BRICS

Brazil

+ives

Produces 1/2 South america's GDP

Huge natural resources = 1/3 world's iron ore/second largest producer of biofuel

Self-sufficient in food and energy

A democratic government following 30 years of military dictatorship post WW2

spends over 60% south america's military budget

Huge biodiversity and supporter of climate change restrictions

-ives

Over reliant upon primary products for export

less politically stable in the most recent years

Military less significant with lower global reach than most BRICs

Major environmental issues incl. deforestation and farming issues

Russia

+ives

9th largest global economy with largest GDP/capita of the BRICs

Highest HDI score of 0.798

71% population have internet access

Permanent member of UN security council

Large military - often shows power such as Vostok Games in 2018

40% global gas supply

-ives

China

over dependent upon oil and gas exports

issue of alcoholism

unbalanced economy with the superrich and the superpoor

ageing military is lacking new tech

+ives

-ives

2nd largest GDP

GDP/capita and average wage has tripled in last 10 years

Rapidly improving infrastructure

Worlds largest army w. 2.2million personnel

Nuclear

Permanent member of UN security council

GDP/capita is still low

Lack of democracy and poor human rights record

Only 2% population uni graduates

Set to have and ageing population with the one child policy

Huge environmental problems

India

+ives

Annual economic growth is 7% since 1997 and 2015

Widespread use of english

Large call centre/IT industry which attracts $90bn of FDI annually

World's 4th largest army

World's largest democracy

-ives

lowest GDP/capita of all BRICs of $6000

Low internet access at 34%

Over reliant upon agriculture = 18% GDP

Poor infrastructure with frequent power cuts and water shortages

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UN Climate Change conference

An example of how superpowers may be restricted by global governance

An annual meeting that sets global climate change policy

Examples include the 2016 Paris Agreement - the first time that all states agreed to set emissions targets. The USA have now pulled out of this

However, there are a lack of sanctions on those who break the agreement

World's biggest polluter has reinstated its commitment to the agreement

Development theories

Modernisation Theory

Rostov's 5 stages of development

This explains the dominance of the British Empire and the USA

Post WWII, the US believed that investing in LIDCs in the form of loans would enable then to reach the preconditions for take off = reduces the chance of them adopting communism as an economic solution

Frank's Development theory

Frank believed that superpowers maintain their strength by exploiting LIDCs through TNCs (exploitation of cheap labour and resources)

Some believed that the US dominance in WTO/IMF creates continuing dependency

Theory States that the LIDCs need to break their dependency by: - creating their own investment bank or - resigning from current international institutions and agreements

Wallerstein's World Systems theory

Suggests that the core and periphery are dependent upon each other

Wallerstein argues that the core needs the semi-periphery as it prevents the rest of the world from turning against them

The theory reflects a capitalist, free trade model

The core may turn to other states to provide supports during recessions. E.G. China investing in ACs after the 2008 financial crisis

What are the impacts of superpowers on the global economy, political systems and the physical environment?

Superpowers and decision making

Alliances increase interdependence

The EU

Has an economy second in size to the US

Euro is the second most traded currency globally

The EU represents 400 million consumers = strong position during international negotiations

All agreements are made on a bloc basis

All members must follow EU legislation

Some members favour a United Nations of Europe and a European Army

UN Security Council

This is the global mechanism to maintain peace and security

5 permanent seats (UK, US, RUS, CHN, FRA)

The council can apply sanctions/authorise the use of military force/Authorise a UN peacekeeping force to be sent over to try to regain peace

Criticisms

Any of the 5 permanent member states can veto a decision

The UK, US, FRA tend to vote as one and so do CHN, RUS = deadlock

Have been accused of failing to act

How superpowers influence the global economy

Culture

This has lead to cultural backlash

Jose Bove bulldozed a McDonalds as a protest against the growth hormones used in the burgers

Alternatives to barbie dolls in the middle east - they wear national dress

China only allows 20 Hollywood based films to be released every year

The US cultural Global reach

Media - CNN and news corp are two very powerful multimedia organisations. Tend to have agendas. News corps papers supported Brexit

Food and Drink - driving force behind fast food and soft drink culture

Language - global spread of english w. 600million speakers. Second language in most countires

Fashion - particularly youth fashion. 'Invented' Jeans, tshirts, sportswear as leisure wear

Music - source of most modern music (Rock, rap, r and b, house). 50% of recording and streaming was in English

Cinema - 18/20 highest grossing movies were made in Hollywood

Free market capitalism

since the end of the cold war, the world has been dominated by the free-market capitalist system

Free Market Capitalism Features

Buying and selling of goods in a free market with limited restrictions

The right to make a profit/accumulate any quantity of wealth

Wages based upon supply and demand

Private ownership of business

Private ownership of business and property

TNCs

Patents

GM Crops

Farmers are prosecuted if they use these seeds

Farmers buy GM seeds but are not allowed to use the new seeds created naturally from the planted GM crop as the new seeds are still owned by the producer

Most GM crops are patented by TNCs

Pharmaceuticals

However, the poor can be out marketed which means that they can't access the healthcare that they need (e.g. HIV in africa)

Therefore High sales prices are needed to make up for this

The drug itself is cheap to produce. The research isn't

As drugs cost millions to research and develop they are useful

These types of patents tend to last 20 years

Technology

In 1995, the WTO introduced the modern patent system - a system where all WTO members had to apply for patents of their goods to protect from fakes

There is an argument that patents protect TNCs and therefore superpowers

some property rights are awarded to individual inventors such as James Dyson with the bagless hoover

They guarantee a financial return for the original producer of the product

Patents are designed to protect intellectual property rights

There is increasing importance of state owned TNCs in BRIC countries

The annual turn over of a company like walmart is the same as the economy of sweden (the world's 22nd largest economy)

TNcs now control over 80% of the global trade, worth $20bn

400 of the 500 largest TNCs come from only 7 countries. However, since 2005, there has been a massive boom in the Asian TNCs as a result of their growth. E.G. china has increased massively

E.g. Walmart in the US had an annual revenue of $486bn. But Sinopec (Chinese owned) had an annual revenue of $456bn

International court of Justice

This is at The Hague, Netherlands

Settles disputes between international members

there are 15 judges with all world regions represented

5 permanent security council members are allocated 1 judge each

Often send war leaders to international prison for war crimes

NATO

has 28 members

'An attack on one is an attack on all'

Dominated by the US, but all member states pledge to spend a % of GDP on military

Trump has claimed that countries need to spend more, if they are to be protected by the US

regular joint military exercises

Claimed increasing irrelevancy after the Cold War

Member states can act individually

CASE STUDY: Iraq

Iraq invaded Kuwait in 1990 for the oil fields

there was a global concern that Saddam Hussain (who controlled 40% of global oil supplies) would attack saudi arabia for oil

President Bush and PM thatcher urged a military solution

a coalition of 35 nations joined the military force (commanded by the US who provided 500,000 troops

Saudi Arabia allowed the US to have bases on the soil.

Bin Laden (previously trained by the US to fight against the USSR in Afghanistan) didn't like this. Set up the 9/11 attacks

The war in Saudi Arabia was largely live broadcasted by CNN

A 5 week aerial and naval bombardment started in Jan 1991 - followed by a 4 day ground war in Feb

Coalition losses = 300. Iraqi losses = 30,000

UN had not authorised the occupation of Iraq. So once the liberation of Kuwait was achieved, coalition forces withdrew.

Saddam Hussain remained in power

Invasion of Iraq after 9/11 (War on Terror)

The UN did not authorise the war in Iraq

However, 6 countries (led by the US and UK) still invaded Iraq

UK claimed that Iraq had Weapons of Mass Destruction, that imposed a threat on the UK

there were 1.5 million anti-war protesters in London

Air/Ground war lasted 1 week w. Iraqi forces comprehensively defeated

297 UK losses, 500,000 Iraqi losses

No WoMD were ever found - plunged Iraq into chaos and ISIS was formed

Physical Environment superpower influence

Overview

China overtook the US in energy use in 2009

US held the top position for energy usage for 100 years

In 2000, China's energy usage was 1/2 of the US. By 2015 it was 30% higher

ACs = 2/3 global GDP in 1980, now it is 1/2

Global energy use is set to rise by 36% by 2030

The demand for oil in EDCs + LIDCs overtook ACs in 2013

Russia and Iran hold 65% of natural gas reserves

CASE STUDY: China

China's demand for raw materials has accounted for 90% of the global increase in the sea traffic since 2000 - imports 10 million tonnes of iron ore every week

Huge investor in overseas supplies (copper mines in Zambia)

Largest consumer of coal/wheat/cotton/rice

Widespread water shortages in CHN - consumption exceeded supply by 70% in Beijing 2015

China is buying fertile farmland in Africa to produce wheat, meat, rice for it's population

Over 1bn Chinese owns a mobile phone = huge demand for Li/Cu/Zn

450million extra cars on the roads of china

increase of 80% global meat consumption

Superpowers and environmental policy

CHN

Poor historical record

Committed to the paris climate change agreement - has agreed to cut emissions

more wind turbines than any nation

the world's largest investor in renewable technologies

halted construction of new coal fired power stations

any international progress would be meaningless without chinese cooperation

USA

Shown global leadership - cut emissions by 10%

tripled wind power between 2005-15 increased solar energy production by 1000%

Obama introduced pollution standards and legally enforceable energy efficiency measures

many see environmental legislation as anti-freemarket and do not favour restriction

Trump indicated that he will repeal legislation- he disputes the scientific evidence behind climate change

RUS

Supported Paris agreement

Agreed requirements to cut emissions to 30% below 1990 levels - due to deindustrialisation following collapse of communism, this will easily be achieved = little impact on RUS economy

What spheres of influence are contested by superpowers and what are the implications of this?

Tensions

Tensions over resources - Arctic Oil and Gas

2007, a Russian submarine planted a flag on the seabed underneath N. Pole, indicating its claim for the resources in that section of the Arctic. 7 nations have competing claims in this region

US estimates that 30% of global undiscovered oil and gas could being in the Arctic region

Russia has granted permits for TNCs to start exploration in disputed regions

UN law of sea = countries are allowed to claim minerals and resources within 200miles of their coastline. However, some of these overlap = tensions

Russia, canada, US, EU (all with powerful armed forces, members of military alliances or have nuclear weapons) are key players

Tensions increase due to technological advances, alternatives supplies running out, arctic becoming more accessible due to sea ice

Economic Tensions - Fake

Increasing violations against patents

Faking brands is illegal under WTO rules

Industry is concentrated in CHN, TUR, THI, SPN

Key areas are: Fashion e.g. Louis Vuitton 70% are fake

DVDs/software are a growth market

More dangerous include fake cigarettes/alcohol

Some seem to ignore, such as the stalls in the grand bazaar in Istanbul

Tensions over territory - Russian Western Border

Previous regions of USSR became independent after collapse of USSR in 1991

Includes Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Ukraine

Some still view this as russian territory/embarrassed that the USSR collapsed

Tensions increased as Eastern European states became more aligned with the west, e.g. Joining EU/NATO

Crimea

Russia tried to gain back Crimea after Ukraine tried to apply to EU/NATO

It organised a disputed referrendum on whether Crimea should be russian or Ukrainian

Before the Referendum, Russia sent in troops which flushed out all the Native Ukrainians

Russia also threatened to cut of gas supplies as a punishment for Ukraine's pro-western stance

NATO have deployed several ground forces on Eastern Border in responce

Tensions over Territory - South China Sea

Numerous territorial disputes e.g. CHN/JPN and Senkaku Islands

Islands are important as they provide ownership of minerals/resources

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