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190227 Futures GST (DCDC) Murchison, Cole (GST (amplifying considerations,…

- - - - but needs tailor to policy makers
- - - - dispersion of power / competition v cooperation
  - - - broad horizon scanning / high consultation
  - - - not prioritised
  - - - temperature & sea level rise
        
        different effects around the world
        
        will challenge military ops
      - more powerful storms
        
        further north & south then previously experienced
        
        may prevent electrical systems work
      - droubt
        
        global
        
        but inc CH eastern seaboard
    - - population will continue to grow
        
        focused in certain areas
        
        inc sub Saharan Africa
        
        ID
        
        US
      - families will become more atomised
      - ageing
        
        concentrated in certain areas
        
        24 Eu countries
        
        normally more consevative
        
        resist tech
        
        but more peaceful
      - increased life expectancy
      - disease
        
        better able to treat
        
        but concern about resistant viruses
        
        obesity
        
        likely to become number one health issues
        
        mental health
      - treatments and enhancements
        
        cures of disease
      - increased migration
      - values
        
        convergence
        
        well educated, well off
        
        but also a backlash
        
        elderly, poor
        
        echo chamber is part of it: social media
    - - increased connectivity
      - increased digital information
      - increased processing power
        
        (despite potential reduction of Moore's law)
        
        quantum comput
      - increased automation
        
        pressure on jobs
        
        mostly mid-skilled
        
        but likely to move into high skill
        
        so consumer conundrum
  - - - unprocessed in developing world
    - - link b/n GDP growth and energy decreasing
      - have potential
        
        renewables
        
        challenges for hydrocarbon produces
    - - food production
    - - will increase
        
        G7 to E7
        
        inc CH, ID, Brasil
        
        G7 will decrease
      - financial power / influence likely to head east
    - - likely to increase
        
        esp develop govt
        
        esp through mobile phone banking
        
        away from traditional methods
        
        improved taxation
      - welfare
        
        esp health care
      - other actors
        
        cyber
        
        facilitated by private actors
      - digital surveillance
        
        a matter of policy, not tech
      - sub national govts against main govt
    - - made led to corporations developing their own style
      - to erode state soveriegnty
    - - more difficult for universal laws
    - - power follows the economy
      - will stress the UN
        
        esp UNSC
        
        two permanent members are European middle powers
        
        so may make irrelevant
    - - likely to continue
      - people dying is less (in terms of global population)
        
        military behaviour / precision wpns / better health
      - but number of conflicts increasing
        
        impotetent greviance to potenent greviance so people are more enabled
        
        move away fm bipolar world
      - but great power rivalry
        
        can it be peacefully managed
        
        CH/IN
        
        CH/US
    - - global strike
        
        rail guns, ICBM
        
        inc nuclear
        
        sea / air LOC challenged
      - automation increased
        
        machines over people
        
        degree of human control
        
        policy choice
      - cyber
      - AI
    - - recruitmen and motivation
        
        esp because machines can do it
        
        what will create espirit de coups
      - the nature of conflict
        
        remove passion
        
        a war of economics rather than blood
- - - - away from binary choices