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Why we're bad @ Estimating (The Planning Falacy (Co - ordination…
Why we're bad @ Estimating
Sydney Opera House
Est 6 years
7.2 million dollars
Actual
10 years late
$102 Million
1400% over run
How to fix it
Premortem
The Planning Falacy
We underestimate
Positive Bias
Optimism bias
Bad stuff won't happen to us
Cognitive Bias
Elimante optimism
Premortem
Diverse group
Set the scene
Glass 1/2 empty group
Glass 1/2 full group
Discuss risk - opportunity
Create a plan
Give it an owner
Share get feedback
Strategic Misrepresentation
Telling people what they want to hear
Reference class forecasting
Identify
Establish
Compare
PERT
4 estimates
Optimistic
Pessismestic
Most likely
PERT
Co - ordination Neglect
Focus on what needs to be done
Not the cost of integrating it
Know thy time
Top 3
Know where minutes go
Track & react
Optimism Bias