Outline (To what degree can we learn from the past? ( What is meant by…
To what degree can we learn from the past?
Different versions of history, based on peoples ideas.
"Everything is another one of those" - Ray Dalio
History is doomed to repeat it
What is meant by the past?
It's obviously possible to learn from the past, but the interesting question, is how far can we stretch this?
History is accelerating
Seems we can learn less and less from history.
It's a question of how much the world we inhabit is similar to before.
So the more the conditions of today resemble the conditions of yesterday, the more we can learn from the past.
Learning from past: History
Problems with learning from history
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What kind of things can we learn from history
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Autocorrelation. This essentially tells us how much the variance of
Autocorrelation is a mathematical representation of the degree of similarity between a given time series and a lagged version of itself over successive time intervals. It is the same as calculating the correlation between two different time series, except that the same time series is actually used twice: once in its original form and once lagged one or more time periods.
So in Groundhog day.
Every day he wakes up, the world is the same. Here he is able to learn from the day before, as the autocorrelation between this day and the day before is 1. As soon as he starts to act in the world however, the day might turn out very different.
When you through your controller against the wall because you didn't manage to defeat the boss in God of War, you reset and the conditions are the same.
Lessons from history quote
Generals and financiers
History and Historiography