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Peterson Performance Prediction lecture (productivity (pareto distribution…

- - - - why an issue? because too much inclusion creates a market that is much too broad, e.g. universities in the Netherlands accept basically everyone, but have a huge drop-out rate after the first year - it puts stress (physically, emotionally, monetarily) on many people, and it perhaps would have been fairer to everybody to make the entry limitations a bit stricter
    - - see consequences of failure
      - it is the ethical thing to do to place people in positions who are best-suited, effective, valid, reliable, AND to do so in a non-discriminatory way!
        
        meaning that there's issues in the interview process (good-looking and charming people will get better results in interviews, but those facts don't mean they're actually going to do a good job)
        
        performance tests like the Big Five give a much better chance of picking more suitable candidates, with a much higher correlation (e.g. conscientousness is a good predictor, a better one is conscientousness mixed with intelligence; moving the prediction level from 50:50 (chance) to 60:40 (0.2 correlation for only conscientousness) to 80:20 (0.6 correlation, for conscientousness plus intelligence)) - binomial effect size display
        
        0.2 is actually a pretty decent correlation for personality prediction standards (leaves 95% of the phenomena unexplained, but the higher the return of just a few percent, the more valuable those few percent are!
        
        Peterson has produced a few tests for companies with 0.6 correlation
        
        the probability that companies will use performance tests is inversely related to the accuracy of the test
        
        e.g. Meyers-Briggs has 0 predictive utility in regards to performance prediction - why still use it? maybe because it doesn't hurt anybody's feelings? the problem with tests that work is that most of the people won't do very well in them, and also people aren't good at statistical reasoning
        
        another reason? there's limited budget for testing, and internal politics forbid too much spending on a test that might be way more useful in the long run
        
        another reason: accurate tests take longer - 120 minutes is too much, even though it is, again, incredibly useful in the long run
        
        bureaucracy and politics of a large company takes forever, and there is a huge turnover
        
        people are afraid of change, and especially being the one to blame for failure
        
        People are not aiming at success or happiness - they just don't want to fail or get hurt. Check human motivation! Neuroticism is a powerful motivator (negative emotion system) - "let's not be too threatened or hurt".
        
        its is incredibly difficult to measure productivity and value of an employee! only a few jobs (e.g. lawyers - hours billed, salespeople - sales numbers) have an easy to value measure inbuilt into their job; all others have to be evaluated in a much more complicated way (interviews of your peers/managers, comparisons with colleagues, etc.)
- - - - even if something of value is produced, that doesn't mean that it will sell well, or at all - check probability of performance test usage
  - - - meaning that increasing the capacity for predicting improvements even by a small amount can have huge economic consequences
  - - - income inequality is the logical consequence of trading games
    - - personality factors are important for those loops - e.g. lose job, very conscientous but highly neurotic, feels depressed about not having a job, falling into depression, marriage suffers, isolation from friends, positive emotions and enthusiasm decreases, drinking problems develop, etc.
        
        meaning that depression is not necessarily happening because something is wrong in somebody's head - it may as well be just because something went wrong in their life
        
        however - their psychological inadequacies might be interfering with their ability to recover, or served as precursors for their issues in the first place
        
        you're not just an individual - you're connected to other people through society, job, friends, etc. - all sorty of networks that can pull you down, or elevate you!
  - - - social proof - e.g. having a product to sell, the first customer is the most difficult to get, because they want to have proof that the product is good and will ask for the previous customer's satisfaction with it - if they are the first customer, it is incredibly difficult to get them to buy the product
        
        customer wants to make a decision they won't get in trouble for - check human motivation
- - - - that's why the gender difefrences are the largest in scandinavian countries, where socioeconomic differenecs have been minimized the most
  - - - so far nobody has found a way to increase it
      - decreases over age, physical exercise is effective at staving off decline
    - - mostly conscientousness, mostly industriousness within that
        
        microhabits can improve those levels (set up some goals to aim for! - e.g. what do I want from my career? what do I want from my relationship? --> future authoring program!)
        
        have a valued goal! (and what you want to stay away from!)
        
        so figure out what the hell you want, love!!
        
        set the schedule up for the day you WANT (don't see a schedule as a constraint or a self-imposed tyranny)
        
        this way you set up your own positive loop/ spiral!
    - - build and maintain relationships, the more connected, the better
        
        good friend: a) someone you can tell bad news, and they'll listen!, and b) someone you can tell good news, and they'll celebrate with you! --- surround yourself with people who want the best for the best parts of you! people who facilitate your development!
        
        stay away from people who pull you down, take the responsibility not to enable them in their negativity!
    - - talk about problems AND solutions!
      - take opportunities that help you learn something new!
        
        AND take opportunities that help you find OTHER opportunities! so that even if the first one fails, it doesn't matter, since iot still brought you forward!