Chapter 4 Why Systems Surprise US
Beguiling Events
Bounded Rationality
Ubiquitous Delays
Layer Limits
Non-existent Boundaries
Linear Minds in a Non-Linear World
Enchanted by the event rather the mechanics that lead to the event
Long term behavior are the clues
Understand the what and the why
Look for how events accumulate into complex patterns of behavior
Economic analysis use statistics to link past trends
Example: Financial Crisis or viral outbreak
The world is complex to be linear
We see the world in a linear relationship
Nonlinearities can change the the relative strengths of feedback loops
Aristotle thinking - there must be a balance in life
For example: Wine blending - one would think a trail blend of a gallon would produce the same results if scaled up to 1000 gallons. It is similar but never the same
Systems don't have distinguish boundaries
Everything is connected
When there is narrow boundaries the systems is more susceptible to surprises
We create our own boundaries for discussions, problem, purpose
For Example: microbial influences of wine from the surrounding environment
Example: Clean rooms can create an artificial boundary
Multiple inputs produce multiple outputs
Outputs are limited to the amount of inputs
Justus von Liebig- Law of the minimum
Input is the most important to a system because it is the most limiting
For example you need yeast to produce alcohol
It takes time for things to happen
We are surprised over and over again at how much time things take
Be patient
For Example: Letting your food rest after cooking it so the moisture can redistribute takes 15-20 mins but it makes a significant difference the system
Economist Herman Daly's " invisible foot"
People make reasonable decisions based on the information that they have.
We rarely see the full range of of possibilities to make a decision so we have to make a best decision
For example: Sanitation Practices in a winery is based on bounded rationality because to be 100% certain that a tank is sanitary so there is a quarterly check to verify the effectiveness of the sanitation practices