CARS IN THE FUTURE
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"Lithium is a material stock and, in the electric vehicle industry, is only required to build the battery, while oil is a fuel required to operate an internal combustion engine vehicle. Lithium scarcity would only affect new vehicle production. Not having lithium is like not having a new engine; the existing fleet can still operate for years. Oil is essential to operate the existing fleet; thus, oil is a far more critical part of the value chain."
"By 2030, revenues from petrol taxes could be reduced significantly, with the shift from individual ownership of petrol vehicles to shared (and ultimately autonomous) electric vehicle fleets.
Governments whose budgets rely on this revenue stream could find themselves shifting to road pricing, such as charging per kilometer of travel or congestion charging."
"China, the world’s largest car market, is working on a timetable to stop the production and sale of vehicles powered by fossil fuels. India has declared its intention to make all new vehicles electric by 2030."
"Raftery notes, “Lithium-ion batteries cost $1,000 per kWh in 2010. By 2017 that cost had fallen to $200 per kWh, and it won’t stop there. At the Tesla shareholder meeting on June 5th of this year, Elon Musk stated that Tesla would be at $100 per kWh within 2 years."
"And, don’t forget: “Another factor in favor of electric vehicles is that they are far more reliable. The drivetrain in an ICE vehicle contains 2,000+ moving parts typically, whereas the drivetrain in an EV contains around 20."
"In the world’s largest car market, Raftery notes that, “China has passed a law which requires any vehicle maker to obtain a new energy vehicle score of at least 10% by 2019, which rises to 12% by 2020, and on up to 20% of sales by 2025."
"EVs have a rocky history which goes much further back than you might think. The first electric car was made in 1837, 71 years before the first production of the 1908 Ford Model T. Shortly after the initial success of the gas car, the first hybrid was put on the market in 1911. It failed quickly due to its difficulty to repair, but electric cars continued to be popular until the 1920s. It was at that time that road infrastructure improved, and people needed longer range and faster speeds than early EVs could provide."
"The answer: better technology. Let’s start with the engine, or, in the EV’s case, an induction motor. A gas car’s internal combustion engine (ICE) is much more prone to failure than an EV’s motor, and that’s not surprising considering ICEs have hundreds of moving parts. Induction motors, on the other hand, only have a handful of parts, making them much simpler and easier to repair. The vastly fewer parts in an EV motor make the vehicle more reliable, so the drivetrain has a much lower chance of failure."
"When considering all the complexity and cost benefits of electric compared to gas vehicles, it’s clear why they are beginning to make waves again. And with the recent release of the Tesla Model 3, electric vehicles are about to skyrocket in popularity. And this time, they’re here to stay."
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It’s not just Big Oil that believes this to be true. The International Energy Agency (IEA), the watchdog for large, developed energy-consuming economies, agrees. According to the IEA, an estimated 50 million electric vehicles will be in operation by 2025, and 300 million by 2040, compared to about 2 million vehicles currently on the road. That growth is expected to reduce global oil demand by 2.5 million barrels a day or about 2%. A factor of 6-to-1 easily offsets that reduction with increased demand from petrochemicals, trucks, shipping and aviation – areas the IEA says could lead to net demand growth of up to 14 million barrels a day.
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Earlier this month, Musk said that Tesla is on track for “the most amazing quarter in their history” and that they are “building and delivering more than twice as many cars as they did last quarter.” Tesla said that it built 53,339 vehicles, including 28,578 Model 3’s last quarter.