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Slowbalization (Two years ago (Last year (Now (Stagnating economy -…

- - - - Stagnating economy - slowbalization
        
        Less glaring than but as pernicious as rise in costs of imports, rules of commerce are being rewritten
        
        Regimes for vetting foreign firms (America, EU and China)
        
        America weaponized power gained from dollar-payment system to punish foreighers
        
        Grip on tech industries
        
        Rules on privacy, data, espionage are splintering
        
        Tech systems bent to patriotic ends - repatriate capitals to silicon valley
        
        Cross-border investment fell / value of cross-border firms fell
        
        Impact
        
        Not a disaster for living standards, continental-sized markets are large enough to prosper
        
        Deeper links within regional blocs / a fluid patchwork of regional deals
        
        Evaluation - meaner and less stable, only feed the discontent
        
        Disadvantages
        
        Create new difficulties
        
        More countries struggle to trade their way to riches
        
        Interest rates still influenced by the Fed, leading to financial turbulence, but Fed is less likely to rescue foreigners
        
        Not a real fix for problems created by globalization
        
        Slowbalization will not moderate or contain China, but help it win regional hegemony faster
        
        Climate change, migration and tax-dodging harder to solve without global co-operation
        
        Automation means fewer blue-collar jobs
        
        WHY
        
        multinational firms burns money in global sprawl while local rivals eat them alive
        
        Services are hard to sell across borders
        
        Costs of shipping stop falling
        
        Chinese manufacturing has become more self-reliant - less import
      - Complacent
        
        Trade war is designed to squeeze concessions from China, not blow up the commerce
      - Globalization (1990-2010)
        
        commerce soared, firms set up around the world, investors roamed and consumers shopped with enough choices
        
        costs of shipping fell, phone calls cheaper, tariffs cut and finance liberalized
    - - Global growth was decent; unemployment fell and profits rose
      - China is slowing ; Western firms exposed to China have been clobbered
- - - - Not a disaster for living standards - continental markets prosper
      - Deeper links within regional blocs
    - - New difficulties
        
        Countries influenced by interest rate planned by the Fed are more vulnerable to financial turbulence without rescue from the Fed
        
        More countries will struggle to ratchet up riches
      - Not a real fix
        
        Helps China win regional hegemony faster
        
        Climate change, migration, tax-dodge harder to solve without global cooperation
        
        Fewer blue-collar jobs because of automation
- - - - costs stop falling, global sprawl burns money, competitive local rivals, services hard to sell across border, more self-reliant manufacturing in China
        
        Sluggish economy - Slowbalization
  - - - Tax rise on imports - cost passed to consumers
      - Complacency - Treat trade war as to squeeze concessions from China not blow up commerce
      - Imply rules of commerce is changed
- - - - Rule of commerce is being rewritten
        
        Impact
        
        Neutral
        
        Deeper links within regional blocs
        
        Not a disaster for living standards - continental markets prosper
        
        Disadvantages - rule of commerce is being rewritten
        
        New difficulties
        
        Countries influenced by interest rate planned by the Fed are more vulnerable to financial turbulence without rescue from the Fed
        
        More countries will struggle to ratchet up riches
        
        Not a real fix
        
        Helps China win regional hegemony faster
        
        Climate change, migration, tax-dodge harder to solve without global cooperation
        
        Fewer blue-collar jobs because of automation
        
        Evidence
        
        Fragmenting areas - Grip on tech, vet foreign countries, etc
        
        Slower global investment