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Amundsen Future (Future Study (∴ Must develop methods to predict/ detect…
Amundsen Future
Future Study
∴ Must develop methods
to predict/ detect where form drag = esp influential
Some surface obvs may be used to infer bed data/feats
Need better model characterisation basal traction
Form drag implications
Constant spatial resistance to flow
Basal topog feats
unlikely to move
if form drag = control
Basal traction likely constant
Whereas, if another control,
If control = subglacial sed def/basal sliding:
i.e. Sediment wetness would've dictated flow & subglacial water VARIES
Resistance to flow likely to vary
Explains Siple Coast Ice Streams ?
Tendency to migrate/shutdown/restart
Thwaites Glacier
Thwaites ice flow [E to W]
appears to go against grain of surface features
Implication
Different system of flow @ Thwaites vs PIG
Whereas @ PIG
Flow often seems to follow grain of surface feats
Future Amundsen Retreat
Modelling
with continued melting underside shelf
& resulting retreat with ↑ surface slope
Present
PIG most active retreat
Thwaites
pinned around one point
Bit in future
PIG slows
Thwaites
retreat accelerates
as
overcomes topographic high
Cornford et al (2014) & Nias et al (2016)
PIG Obvs
Exhibited most ∆ past 30 years
→ accel / thinning / retreat
Thwaites
Likely will become
dominant area ice loss
in WAIS
Cornford et al (2014) &
Nias et al (2016) modelling
May not retreat as fast as modelled
if bed rougher than BEDMAP shows
Thwaites
= most unstable part of WAIS
∴ priority in AIS research
International Thwaites Glacier Collaboration
Msmts over next 5 years
Met stations
e.g temp ∆
Traverses
- radar msmts / seismics
Moorings
- ocean msmts (temp/salinity/ocean currents etc)
Autosubs
- under ice shelf
Ship
- Sir David Attenborough
Helicopters
- nuantak geology msmts
(last time ice thinned)
Project Components
Field data
Output: wider IS modelling
Better understand key processes
Modellling
Coupled ice / ocean & fracture / cliffs
Output: Policy & IPCC
Historical Context
Output: paleocommunity
Marine records / geological context