Chapter 5: INTERNATIONAL BANKING RISKS

Types of International Banking Risks

Foreign Exchange (FOREX) Risk

Sovereign Risk

Interest Rate Risk

Liquidity Risk

Credit Risk

Transport Risk

Market Risk

Cultural Risk

Operational Risk

one of the oldest risk that banks faced

risk of direct or indirect loss resulting from external events.

Internal Factors: losses or breakdown caused by inefficient management.

such as ✅ physical causes ✅ personal failure ✅ misleading information ✅ liability for accidents and others.

External Aspects: market environment, credit situation & other risk condition.

risk of losses in balance sheet position arising from movements in market prices.

such as ❤ interest rates ❤ exchange rates ❤ securities prices ❤ commodity prices

2 types of market risk

Systematic Market Risk: caused by movement in the prices of all market due to macro factors.

Unsystematic Market Risk: the price of one instrument moves out in line because of events related to the issuer of instruments.

eg: changes in economic policy

eg: law suit against the issuer.

occurs when financial system suffers from a failure.

is probability that a loan will not be repaid or there will be a default in payment.

potential that a bank borrower or counterparty will fail to meet its obligations.

Basel I: focused on credit risk where the financial institutions are required to maintain their capital.

Basel II: revealed numerous in accurately managing credit risk during financial crisis.

Basel III: provide more effective regulations about addressing credit risk.

defined as the exposure of a banking & financial condition movements in interest rates.

main source of return/profit is converting bank's liabilities.

eg: deposits & borrowings turns into assets.

the bank makes profit by paying lower interest rates on its liabilities.

creates interest rate risk which in the case of interest rates will rise in the banks that causing the bank to pay more for its liabilities.

known as currency risk.

is a financial risk that exists when a financial transaction is denominated in a currency other than the currency of the origin country.

if the exchange rate of the foreign currency falls, both the interest payments & the principal repayment will be worth less than when the loan was given that reduces bank's profits.

currency must be converted to another currency to make a certain investment.

known as political risk.

many foreign loans are paid in US Dollars & repaid with dollars.

it will affect international banking & financial institutions' behavior.

unstable political environment will affect in changes of government policy

arises when bank has to meet its obligations as they come due without incurring losses.

two types of liquidity risk

Funding Liquidity Risk: when a firm is unable to obtain sufficient funds to meet cash flow obligations.

Market Liquidity Risk: inability to conclude a large transaction near the current market price.

due to long distances between countries.

goods are dispatched by shipping or airways

sea & transport are exposed to many types of additional risks.

culture differs from one country to another.

the language, value of time, customs & lifestyles.

business firm faces additional risks.

Supervision and Regulation on International Banking

Single Bank Supervisor or Multiple Supervisors

key policy decision is whether there should be a single bank supervisory authority or multiple bank supervisors

the strongest reason for some to advocate a single bank supervisory authority is the fear of competition in laxity between multiple bank supervisors

Bank Supervisory Role of the Central Bank

countries must also decide whether to assign responsibility for bank supervision to the central bank

can help it identify and respond to the emergence of a systemic problem in a timely manner

those pointing to the disadvantages of assigning bank supervision to the central bank stress the inherent conflict interest between supervisory responsibilities and responsibility for monetary policy

Scope of Supervisory Authority

financial conglomerates that operate in the banking, securities, and insurance sectors are among the most powerful MNCs in many countries

the most significant argument against a supervisory authority with broad scope is that it would result in an undue concentration of power that would otherwise be dispersed among several agencies

this would increase the likelihood of regulatory capture and retard financial innovation

Supervisory Approach of Countries

these dimensions include enforcement powers, the degree of disclosure supervisory authorities must comply with, and the independence of supervisory authorities

it is proportionately more common for the high-income countries to provide greater independence to bank supervisors than countries in the three other income groups

Anti-Money Laundering (AMLA) Regulations

INTRODUCTION

INTERNAL RISK ASSESSMENT OF INTERNATIONAL BANKING

Credit Scoring System

Value at Risk (VaR)

Credit Derivatives

Credit Default Option (CDO)

Credit Default Swap (CDS)

Credit Forward Agreement (CFA)

Credit Securizations

CDO is an option to buy protection or sell protection as a credit default swap on a specific maturity.

A credit spread / net credit spread involves a purchase of one option and a sale of another option in the same class & expiration but different strike prices.

can be defined as the act or a process of transforming profits earned from a criminal or illegal activity into legal profits

3 stages of money laundering

CDS is a financial swap agreement that the seller of the CDS will compensate the buyer in the event of a loan default or other credit event.

example:- drug trafficking, arms smuggling, trafficking in stolen art, body parts, nuclear secrets, and weapons, money used by terrorist groups, kidnapping for ransom, etc

  1. placement

placement of currency into a banking and financial institutions eg commercial bank, brokerage house, investment bank.

Seller of the CDS insures the buyer against some
reference loan defaulting.

In the event of default the buyer of the CDS receives compensation usually at the face value of the loan & the seller of the CDS takes possession of the defaulted loan.

  1. layering

the movement of funds from one institution to another institution in order to disguise the original source and ownership of the funds

Hedges against an increase in default
risk on a loan or decline in credit quality of a
borrower after the loan rate is determined
and the loan has been issued.

  1. integration

the time when the funds, having been laundered are reinvested into a legitimate business

The CFA specifies a credit spread i.e a risk
premium above the risk-free rate to
compensate for default risk on a benchmark
bond issued by the borrower.

prevention measures of AMLA

appoint one or more officers at the senior management level to be the compliance officer responsible for the submission of suspicious transaction reports to the Financial Intelligence Unit in Central Bank

Refer to the complex process of transforming
individual loans into assets that may be
purchased by investors.

Bank coordinate these transactions to reduce
their exposure to individual financial risks.

There has been an explosive growth in the use
of credit derivatives in recent years.

provides training and guidance to staff in the operation of procedures and controls relating to anti-money laundering

The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS)

provides a forum for regular cooperation on banking supervisory matters

to improve understanding of fundamental supervisory aspects and increase the quality of banking supervision worldwide

Can be found in virtually all types of credit
analysis

Is essentially to pre-identify certain key
factors that determine & probability of
default & combine / weight them into a
quantitative score.

the purpose is to encourage convergence toward common approaches and standards

To measure the minimum loss (of value) on a
given asset / portfolio over a given time
period at a given confidence level either 95%,
97.5% or 99%.

Offshore Financial Centres (OFCs)

Powerful in assessing the risk exposure of a
portfolio of assets because it takes into
account the correlation among different
assets.

included interest rate ceilings, restrictions on the range of products supervised financial institutions could offer, capital controls and high effective tax rates

The modern approach

provision of some or all of the following services including low or zero taxation, moderate or light financial regulation, banking secrecy and anonymity

The traditional approach

All banking & financial institutions are exposed
to the same form of risks and most of the time
the failure of one bank will give impact to
others.

Banking and the World Trade Organization (WTO)

the purposes is a country may implement regulatory measures in contravention of its GATS obligations and commitments so long as they are taken for prudential reasons, including the protection of depositors, policy holders

Thus, that’s why today’s global banking
system concerns about risks and seeks ways to
deal with them such as with risk management.

In general, International Banking involves in business risk implies the possibility of some unfavorable event happen in the future.

Islamic Banking Supervision and Regulation

  1. Two-tier Mudharabah

However, the degree of such risk is not the same,
it differs from one institution to another
institution & from one country to another
country.

the assets and liabilities sides of a bank's balance sheet are fully integrated

the depositors enter into a Mudharabah, profit sharing contract with the bank to share the overall profits accruing to the bank's business

depositors act as capital providers or financier by providing funds and bank acts as an entrepreneur by accepting them

Managing risks can limit the probability of bank failure.

Hence, all types of banking and financial institutions have to continuously strengthen their global position so as to become more competitive and sustainable.

the enters into Mudharabah contracts with agent-entrepreneurs who search for investable funds and who agree to share profits with the bank according to a certain percentage stipulated in the contract

Two Windows

bank liabilities are divided into two windows

⭐ demand deposits

Banking crises, rapid structural change and the continuing globalization, liberalization and integration of international banking have led national and multilateral policy makers to focus increased attention on the crucial role of banking supervision.

⭐ investment deposits

are assumed to be placed as Amanat (safekeeping), thus they are considered to belong to the depositors at all time

cannot be used by bank as the basis to create money through fractional reserves

used to finance risk-bearing investment projects with depositors. full awareness