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Judgment and Reasoning (Covariation (Relationship between two variables …
Judgment and Reasoning
Attribute Substitution
Availability Heuristic
The ease with which examples come to mind
Substitute availability for frequency
Representativeness Heuristic
Substitute resemblance for probability
Groups are homogenous
Covariation
Relationship between two variables
•Strong or weak
•Positive or negative
Illusory covariation: Perception that one variable predicts another
Confirmation bias: More responsive to evidence that confirms beliefs
Base-rate information: likelihood of event happening
Dual-Process Model
Type 1 Thinking
•Fast
•Automatic
•Uses heuristics
Type 2 Thinking
•Slower
•More effortful
•More likely to be correct
Influence of education
Depends on context of decision
Confirmation and Disconfirmation
Induction
Works from "specific" to "general"
Bottom-up approach
Deduction
Works from "general" to "specific"
Top-down approach
Confirmation bias
More responsive to evidence that confirms their beliefs
Seek evidence to confirm existing beliefs
Belief perseverance
Tendency to continue endorsing a belief even when evidence has completely undermined it
Logic
Categorical syllogisms: Logical arguments
Syllogisms errors are predictable, systematic
Decision-making
Utility Maximization
•Guide decisions
•Choosing option with the greatest expected value
reason-based choice
Decisions are powerfully influenced by emotions
Affective forecasting
•How will we feel about this in the future?