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Cognitive Errors (Too Much Information (Feature-Positive Effect (What…

- - - - S: Write down beliefs and search for disconfirming evidence
      - Media / Journalism / Self-Help / Economists
  - - - S: Diversify sources of info and people you spend time with
      - Overestimate plane crash / murder, underestimate diabetes / depression
    - - World war II propaganda / modern elections advertising
      - In our memories, the source of the argument fades faster than the argument
      - S: Avoid non-neutral sources and track down the original source of info
  - - - Kahneman' survey: option A saves 200 lives, B 33% of all 600 survive / option B kills 400 lifes, B 33% no one dies...
- - - - Swimmers / Top Models / Harvard Students
      - Selection shapes the results
    - - Employee Motivation - High Corporate Profits
      - Number of books at home - students' grades
    - - S: Read old newspapers and journals
      - Simplify and distort reality and filter things that don't fit
    - - Pavlov's dog / Shoot-the messenger syndrom
  - - - S: Take a walk in the cemitery
      - Rock Superstars / Startups / Habits of the Sucessful
    - - German w/ glasses who listens to Mozart: truck driver or literature professor in Frankfurt (10.000x)
  - - - 1 million monkeys in the stock market (Taleb)
    - - S: Keep a journal
      - "I told you so" bias
    - - David Hume's goose story
      - Stock market forecast e-mail strategy (Taleb)
    - - Russian roulette millionaire vs the neighbour lawyer (Taleb)
    - - Students guess their delivery date / Sydney Opera House (14x)
      - S: Look at base-rate and previous projects / Premortem session (Kahneman)
  - - - A subset seems larger than the entire set
    - - 2 methods for treating drinking water - "Zero-Risk Bias"
      - 72' Electric shock experiment: = physical anxiety under 100% or 1% of shock
    - - Increase the average IQ of two states
      - New screening techniques in medicine
  - - - S: World-class orchestras make candidates play behind a screen
      - We extrapolate conclusions from a simple or remarkable fact
- - - - Active euthanasia is punishable, deliberate refusal of lifesaving measures is legal (DNR orders - do not resuscitate)
      - When action and inaction lead to bad consequences, we tend to prefer inaction
    - - Look active, even if it achieves nothing
    - - Asch's lines experiment / Talk shows' canned laughes
    - - Organ donation / size of the bins / urinal flies
      - Related to Nudge Theory
  - - - When people do something for well-being or non $ reasons, financial rewards erodes other motivations
      - Children's day care centers after fees for lateness
      - Financial incentives and perf bonuses work well in industries w/ unispiring jobs
    - - S: comprise both intent and reward - engineers in Rome under the bridge
      - $ for dinosaur's bones in Chine (broken) / CEO public salaries / consultants paid per hour / investment advisors and products
  - - - Paper folded 50x = earth-sun distance / $1.000 a day or 1 cent, 2 cents, 4 cents for a month? ($ 30.000 vs $ 10 million)
    - - Extreme performances are followed by less extreme ones
    - - Kahneman's city cancer list / IQ in start-ups
      - S: Watch out regarding statistics in any small entity
  - - - "Rara sunt cara" / "today only" / US university drinking
    - - Decide better, decide less (?)
    - - S: think and specify what you want before inspecting existing offers
      - Leads to inner paralysis / poorer decisions / discontent
  - - - S: Make individual performances as visible as possible
      - When people work together, individual performance decreases / minimum effort to get away with it
- - - - A loss "weights" about twice of a similar gain
    - - We consider things more valuable the moment we own them
  - - - Xerox machine line: question (60% success), because hurry (94%), because have to (93%)
    - - We favor known probabilities over unknown ones
      - "Ellsberg paradox"
  - - - Entrance exams / Ikea furniture / Hyper-demanding MBAs
      - S: When you invested a lot of time in a project, examine only the result