Chapter 5: International Banking Risks

Introduction to International Risks

💰 All banking and financial institutions, regardless of
their type are exposed to the same form of risks
and in most situations the failure of one bank
normally will give impact to the others.


💰 It is defined as the chance that an investment's actual return will be different than expected.


💰 Risk can come from different ways. For examples, uncertainty in banking and non-banking institutions and in financial markets.


💰 Managing risks can limit the probability of bank failure.

Types of International Banking Risks

A) OPERATIONAL RISK

⚠It is the risk of losses in on and off balance sheet positions arising from movements in market prices or rates, including interest rates,exchange rates, securities prices and commodity prices.


⚠Systematic market risk caused by a movement in the prices of all market instruments due to macro factors such as a change in economic policy.


⚠Unsystematic market risk, where the price of one instrument moves out in line with other similar instruments because of events related to the issuer of instrument.


⚠Most banks manage market risk with a short term focus, attempting to avoid portfolio losses on a daily basis. But the best practice for estimating the market risk is to adopt measures as Value at Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES).


⚠VaR is a methodology or tool allows banks to measure probable losses that their trading portfolios could incur over a period of time.


⚠ES which provides advantages relative to the VaR approach in terms of lower portfolio downside risks.




B) MARKET RISK

🚩Credit risk is the probability that a loan will not be repaid or there will be a default in payment.


🚩Credit risk is associated with lending activity of banks as it is simply described as the risk of a loan not being repaid in part or full.


🚩Due the fact that this phenomenon was in a rising mode, Basel I which is primarily focused on credit risk, where banking and financial institutions were required to maintain their capital levels equal to 8 percent of risk-adjusted assets.


🚩Basel II has revealed numerous loopholes in accurately managing credit risk during the financial crisis.


🚩Basel III had to provide more effective regulations about addressing credit risk.

🌰Culture differs from one country to another. The language, the value of time, customs and lifestyles differ from country to country.

🎃Due to long distance between countries, goods are despatched by shipping or airways.


🎃Sea and transport are exposed to many types of additional risk.

🖤Liquidity risk arises when bank has to meet its obligations as they come due, without incurring losses.


🖤Two types of liquidity risk which the first one occurs when a firm is unable to obtain sufficient funds to meet cash flow obligations and second refers to the inability to conclude a large transaction near the current market price.


🖤Due the fact that a low liquidity ratio in one financial institution could affect the entire system, liquidity risk management is considered to be a subject of great interest for the regulators.

⌛Sometimes it also refers to political risk.


⌛Political risk has an adverse effect on any economy, mostly because it affects international banking and financial institutions' behaviour.


⌛Political risk constitutes the major constraint on foreign investment in emerging markets.


⌛It is quite obvious that an unstable political environment underlies higher banking and financial risks in relation to a constant and continuously developing political system.


⌛The political actions and instability may make it difficult for MNCs to operate efficiently in these countries due to negative publicity and impact created by individuals in the top government.

✴Also known as currency risk or exchange risk.


✴Financial risk that exists when a financial transaction is denominated in a currency other than the currency of the origin country.


✴If the exchange rate of the foreign currency falls, then both the interest payments and the principal repayment will be worth less than when the loan was given, which reduces a bank's profit.


✴The risk of investment value changing due to changes in currency exchange rates.


✴FOREX risk also exists when the foreign subsidiary of a MNC maintains financial statements in a currency other than the reporting currency of the consolidated entity.

✏Interest rate risk can be defined as the exposure of a banking and financial condition to adverse movements in interest rate.


✏A bank's main source of return or profit is converting bank's liabilities like deposits and borrowings and turns them into assets.


✏Interest rate risk arises in the banking system when financial institutions act as asset transformers. Example: They lend out long-term and refinance short-term.


✏Each bank should have:
i) A framework to manage and keep track on the interest rate risk in the banking book, according to the nature, scale and complexity of the bank's operations.
ii) An approval from a regulatory body to use an internal model for determining the bank's capital requirement for interest rate risk in the banking book.


✏There are two types of methods used for measuring the sensitivity of bank income to changes in interest rates which is first method calculates the amount of rate-sensitive liabilities are subtracted from the amount of rate-sensitive assets and second method examines the sensitivity of the market value in the financial institutions's net worth to changes in interest rate.

Internal Risk Assessment of International Banking

🛍Seek to measure the minimum loss on given asset or portfolio over a given time period at a given confidence level either 95 percent, 97.5 percent or 99 percent.


🛍VAR is particularly powerful in assessing the risk exposure of a portfolio of assets because it takes into account the correlation among different assets.

❗It is one of the oldest risk that banks have ever faced.


❗It is the risk of direct or indirect loss resulting from inadequate or failed internal processes, people and systems or from external events.


❗Internal factors= losses or breakdown caused by inefficient management, by physical causes, by personnel failure, misleading information, from liability for accidents and due to mismanagement of business ventures.


❗External factors= market environment, credit situation and other risk condition.


🌻 It can be found in virtually all types of credit analysis, from consumer credit to commercial loans.
🌻 The idea is to pre-identify certain key factors that determine and probability

A) CEDIT SCORING SYSTEM- THE TRADITIONAL APPROACH

  1. CREDIT DEFAULT OPTION (CDO)
    👕 A CDO is an option to buy protection or sell protection as a credit default swap on a specific reference credit with specific maturity.
    👕The option is usually European, exercisable only at one date in a future at a specific strike price defined as a coupon on the credit default swap.
    👕CDOs on single credits are extinguished upon default without any cash flow, other than the upfront premium paid by the buyer of the option.

2.CREDIT DEFAULT SWAP (CDS)
👕A CDS is a financial swap agreement that the seller of the CDS will compensate the buyer in the event of a loan default.
👕In the event of default the buyer of the CDS receives compensation usually at the face value of the loan and the seller of the CDS takes possession of the defaulted loan.
👕Anyone can purchase CDS, even buyers who do not hold the loan instrument and who have no direct insurable interest in the loan and are called naked CDSs.


  1. CREDIT FORWARD AGREEMENT (CFA)
    👕It is a CFA that hedges against an increase in default risk on a loan or decline in credit quality of a borrower after the loan rate is determined and the loan has been issued.
    👕The CFA specifies a credit spread. Example:A risk premium above the risk-free rate to compensate for default risk on a benchmark bond issued by the borrower.

4.CREDIT SECURITIZATIONS
👕Refers to the complex process of transforming individual loans into assets that may be purchased by investors.
👕Banks coordinate these transactions to reduce their exposure to individual financial risks.
👕Investors prefer securitized products as means to diversify their respective portfolios and gain entry into multiple financial markets.
👕There has been an explosive growth in the use of credit derivatives in recent years.
👕Market participants estimate that the world market in credit derivatives is doubling in size each year.

5.3 Supervision and Regulation on International Banking

🌼 Banking crises, rapid structural change, and the continuing globalization, liberalization, and integration of international banking have led national and multilateral policy makers to focus incrased attention on the crucial role of banking supervision and regulation.

🌼 Policy discussions specifically focus on several issues that must be addressed in establishing and maintaining effective supervision, including who should supervise, monitor, and control banks i.e. the framework or structure of bank supervision

🌼 Three issues for policy makers to address with respect to the structure of bank supervision are:


 🍃 whether there should be a single bank supervisory authority, or multiple bank supervisors 
 🍃 whether  the central bank should play a role in a bank supervision
 🍃 whether the supervisor responsible for the banking industry should also have responsibility for other financial services, in particular the securities and insurance industries.

🌼 How these issues are addressed is important because policies that fail to provide for an appropriate bank supervisory framework may undermine bank performance and even lead to full-scale banking crises.

🌼 A few approaches explained below show the way of supervisory and regulatory of international banking are done in order to secure the best way of carrying financial and banking responsibilities.

A. Single Bank Supervisor or Multiple Bank Supervisorst

🔑 A key policy decision in designing the framework or structure of the bank supervisory system is whether there should be a single bank supervisory authority or multiple bank supervisors.

🔑 Although the previous conceptual literature covers a number of possible advantages and disadvantages to each option, perhaps the strongest reason for some to advocate a single bank supervisory authority is the fear of a competition in laxity between multiple bank supervisors, while those who favour a system with two or more bank supervisors stress the benefits of a competition in ideas among multiple bank supervisors.

B. Bank Supervisory Role of the Central Bank

✨ Countries must also decide whether to assign responsibility for bank supervision to the central bank.

C. Scope of Supervisory Authority

🌸 Much of the discussion about MNCs doing consolidating financial services supervision takes as its starting point the observation that these kind of companies are growing increasingly complex.

✨ As with the issue of single or multiple bank supervisors, the conceptual literature is split on the relative advantages and disadvantages of the central bank being a bank supervisor.

✨ Perhaps the most strongly emphasized argument in favour of assigning supervisory responsibility to the central bank is that as a bank supervisor, the central bank will have first-hand knowledge of the condition and performance of banks.

✨ This in turn can help it identify and respond to the emergence of a systematic problem in a timely manner.

✨ Those pointing to the disadvantages of assigning bank supervision to the central bank stress the inherent conflict of interest between supervisory responsibilities and responsibility for monetary policy.

✨ The conflict could become particularly critical during an economic recession, in that the central bank may be drawn to pursue a too-loose monetary policy to avoid adverse effects on bank earnings and credit quality, and/or encourage banks to extend credit more liberally than warranted based on credit quality conditions to complement an expansionary monetary policy.

🌸 Financial conglomerates that operate in the banking, securities, and insurance sectors are among the most powerful MNCs in many countries.

🌸 Some have argued that a supervisor with broad scope to cover all financial services is necessary to supervise such entities effectively and in particular to insure that supervisory oversight of risk management by such conglomerates is not fragmented, uncoordinated or incomplete.

🌸 The most significant argument against a supervisory authority with broad scope is that it would result in an undue concentration of power that would otherwise be dispersed among several agencies.

🌸 This could increase the likelihood of regulatory capture and retard financial innovation.

C) CREDIT RISK

D) INTEREST RATE RISK

E) FOREIGN EXCHANGE (FOREX) RISK

F) SOVEREIGN RISK

I) CULTURAL RISK

H) TRANSPORT RISK

G) LIQUIDITY RISK

B)VALUE AT RISK-THE MODERN APPROACH

C) CREDIT DERIVATIVES

D. Supervisory Approach of countries

E. Anti- Money Laundering (AMLA) Regulations

🍬 The approach in which the supervisory authorities supervise banks is quite important

🍬Indeed, unless these authorities appropriately intrpret and enforce the regulations governing banks,the regulations themselves become meaningless.

🍬 Perhaps more importantly, it is the supervisorswho have direct contact with the banks and therefore represent the main line of defence against unsafe and unsound banking practices

🍬 Supervisory authorities therefore seek to detect and assess activities and practices

🍬There are several main dimensions to bank supervisory approaches

🍬 Aprimary supervisory approach to assessing the riskiness of banks is through the examination process. The nature of this process is hard to quantify, and cross-country data are the thin at best.

🍬These dimensions include enforcement powers, the degree of disclosure supervisory authorities must comply with, and the independence of supervisory authorities

🍬 The last aspect of the bank supervision considered here is independence. As measured here, independence simply refers to whether or not the supervisors are legally liable for their actions.

🍬The last aspect of the bank supervision considered here is independence. As measured here, independence simply refers to whether or not the supervisors are legally liable for their actions.

☄️ Money laundering is not new to the financial system.

☄️ Although it is difficult to identify its advent but it can be traced to the 1930s in the US.

☄️ Money laundering is defined as the act or a process of transforming profits earned from a criminal or illegal activity into legal profits

☄️For example, money earned from drug trafficking, arms smuggling, trafficking in stolen art, body parts, nuclear secrets, and weapons,money used by the terrorist group, kidnapping for ransom, pariah states undertaking financial transactions to escape from international authorisations, in order to acquire technologies and components for weapon of mass destruction, and individuals seeking to avoid paying their taxes.

☄️There are three stages of money laundering:


☄️Money laundering is a process by which proceeds derived from criminal or illegal activities are converted to legitimate funds

☄️The prevention measures of AMLA


  • Develop a customer acceptance policy and procedures to address the establishment of business relationships with the customer
  • Conduct customers due diligence (reasonable care) and obtain satisfactory evidence in its records, the identity and legal evidence thereon.
  • Keep all records and the documents of transactions, in particular, those obtained during customers due diligence procedures, for at least six years and to ensure the retained documents are able to create and audit trail.
  • Shall conduct on going customers due diligence to examine and clarify the economic background and purpose af any transactions.
  • promptly submit a suspicious transactions report to the Financial Intelligence Unit in Central Bank when any of its employees involved proceeds from an unlawful activity
  • Appoint one or more officers at the senior management level to be the compliance officer responsible for the submission of the suspicious transaction reports to the Financial Intelligence Unit in Cemtral Bank.
  • Provides training and guidance to staff in the operation of procedures and controls relating to anti- money laundering.

🌟 Placement


The first stage is the placement of currency into a banking and financial institutions e.g commercial bank, brokerage house, investment bank, etc.

🌟 Layering


The second stage is the movement of funds from one institution to another in order to disguise the original source and ownership of the funds.

🌟Integration


The third stage is the time when the funds, having been laundered are reinvested into a legitimate business.

F. The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS)

💥 BCBS is a commitee of banking supervisory authorities that was established by the central bank governors of the group of ten countries in 1974

💥 Objective is to improve understanding of fundamental supervisory aspects and increase the quality of banking supervision worldwide

💥 BCBS frames guidelines and standards in different areas. Some of the better known among them are the international standards on capital adequacy, the Core Principles for Effective Banking Supervision and the Concordat on cross-border banking supervision

💥 Committee members come from Argentina, Australia, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, Hong Kong SAR, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Korea, Luxembourg, Mexico, the Netherlands, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the UK and the US

💥 The Committee's Secretariat is located at the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) in Basel, Switzerland. However, the BIS and the Basel Committee remain two distinct entities.

💥 BCBS formulates comprehensive supervisory standards and guideline and recommends statements of best practice in banking supervision (see bank regulation under Basel III Accord) in the expectation that member authorities and other nations' authorities will take steps to implement them through their own national systems

💥 Basel III is a comprehensive set of reform measures developed by the BCBS in order to strengthen the regulation, supervision and risk management of the banking and financial sector

G. Offshore Financial Centres (OFCs)

: 🎉 Emerged in the 1960s and 1970s as a response to distortionary regulations in developed economies

🎉 Such measures included interest rate ceilings, restrictions on the range of products supervised financial institutions could offer, capital controls and high effective tax rates

🎉 OFCs exist in large part because they offer financial market participants tax, regulatory and supervisory advantages not available in their home markets

🎉 Futhermore, the nature of financial activities in OFCs highlights many of the challenges internationally cooperative supervisory groups face in encouraging transparency and disclosure

🎉 Offshore finance is the provision of financial services by banks and other entities to non-residents

🎉 IMF suggests a more practical definition

  • Financial systems with external assets and liabilities out of proportion to domestic
  • Financial intermediation
  • Relatively large numbers of financial institutions engaged primarily in business with non-residents
  • Provision of some or all of the following services including low or zero taxation, moderate or light financial regulation, banking secrecy and anonymity

H. Banking and the World Trade Organization (WTO)

🔥 The WTO General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS) and its Annex on Financial Services (ANNEX) took effect in 1999, specify the general principles that govern cross-border trade in financial services

🔥 The GATS and the ANNEX also specify the restrictions that may be imposed on trade in services for prudential purposes by the current 161 WTO member countries

🔥 The important point for their purposes is, a country may implement regulatory measures in contravention of its GATS obligations and commitments so long as they are taken for prudential reasons

🔥 This is so-called prudential carve-out, however, cannot be used as a means to avoid a member country's obligations and commitments

🔥 The difference between a prudential and a protective measure, both of which restrict trade in financial services, may be difficult to determine because the ANNEX and the GATS itself do not provide any specific guidance regarding the sscope and extent of the prudential exception

🔥 The GATS even prohibits member countries from listing prudential restrictions in their schedules of commitments

🔥 Member countries retain the discretion to invoke prudential regulations to restrict cross-border trade in financial services (despite any commitments) at any time so long as the measures are taken for prudential reasons

I. Islamic Banking Supervision and Regulation

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❤ The fundamental features of islamic banking include

⭐ Prohibition against the payment and receipt of a fixed or predetermined rate of interest i.e riba

⭐ This replaced by profit and loss sharing (PLS) arrangement where the rate of return (ROR) on financial assets held in banks is not known and not fixed prior to the undertaking of the transaction.

⭐ The activities must be syariah compliance i.e halal, no gharar and no maiysir

⭐ Five essential element need to be fulfilled in order to make a contract as valid under islamic : buyer, seller, asset, price, and ijab qabul

❤ It is consistence with one of the following two systems of operation

⭐ Two- tier Mudarabah

-They have a asset and liabilities side. The liabilities if depositors enter into it, the profit must be sharing. Depositor act as capital provider by providing fund and bank act as an entrepreneur.

  • The assets side, the bank, in turn, enters into Mudarabah contract with agent entrepreneur who search for investable fund and who agree to share profit with bank according to a certain percentage stipulated in the contract

⭐ Two windows

  • Bank liabilities divide by two i.e demand deposit and investment deposit
  • Demand deposit are assumed to be placed as Amanat, thus they are considered to belong to depositors at all times.
  • investment deposit are choice of depositors that all risk are in depositor. Bank only charge a fee.