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democratization (democratic consolidation (factors making it more likely…

- - - - pressure from working class :arrow_down:
      - voting franchise gradually expanded
      - pressure on monarchies from middle class :arrow_down:
  - - - transition motivated by groups outside the regime. regime has a lot to lose, but they are confronted by a mass movement. common in personal dictatorships
    - - combination for the first two. regime elites prepared to negotiate, but not initiate it. requires pro-democracy movement from below. most common in 3rd wave
    - - democratizers in regime believe reforms are necessary & they can benefit. common with military regimes
- - - - based on a loose network
      - social network media & TV played an important role
      - protests were populist revolts - jobs, social justice, political representation
      - Revolution 2.0
        
        allowed people to see they weren't alone
        
        helped coordinate protests
        
        lowered cost of mobilization
    - - Gause argues that military's reaction was driven by: social composition of the regime & its military, level of institutionalization & professionalism of the military
      - side with protesters when not from a minority group & more institutionalized & professional. believed they would have an important role in new regime (e.g. Egypt & Tunisia)
      - crucial role in any revolution/regime transition
      - backed the regime when from a minority group, because unlikely that they would survive a democratic transition (e.g. Bahrain, Syria, Jordan & Saudi Arabia)
      - split when not well institutionalized/professional. military factions backed the regime if they were led by members of the regime, others defected (e.g. Libya & Yemen)
    - - oil resources reduce accountability, transparency, & keeps militaries loyal. helps prevent protest
      - non-oil producers; Egypt & Tunisia had to import oil, needed to embrace neoliberal reforms
        
        but didnot strengthen institutions/transparency, had high corruption, & accelerating inequality
        
        social safety nets were scaled back & unemployment rose
        
        they modernized their economies, privatized state enterprises, increased education, & achieved economic growth
        
        when protests started, they lacked the oil wealth to appease the population
- - - - civil society enables discussion & spread of ideas; can organize & mobilize their networks
      - civil society = organized life outside state, includes organizations such as churches, unions, NGOS, etc.
      - invariably, society needs to press for change
      - large middle class important; compared to poor, they are better able to organize & confront the regime if they feel a transition'll threaten their interests
    - - transnational networks & NGOs
        
        spreading democratic values
      - globalization
        
        more economic independence, global media, & international flow of ideas
      - international intervention
        
        US imposed democracy on Japan & Germany after WW2; it became a prerequisite for joining the EU
    - - important in early stages
      - when deciding to support/block transitions they consider :arrow_right:
        
        whether they can win power under democratic rules
        
        whether they maintain a good portion of their wealth after one
      - needs broad support from other elites (ethnic, religious, class-based group leader, bureaucracy, judiciary, & especially military)
    - - democratic culture includes values of freedom & equality
      - critiques says it smacks of stereotyping, arguing that the Roman Catholic Church was seen as an impediment to democracy early in the 20th century. later it became a driving force during the 3rd wave
      - democratic political culture is needed for a transition
    - - wealthier middle class want more control
      - urbanization, education, weakening of traditional authority & hierarchy, gender equality, larger middle class, economic growth
      - modernization theory fell out of favour to some degree in 1970s: there was successful transitions in poor countries (India, Botswana) & not in wealthy countries (SG) & petrostates in Middle East