Assessment
Step 5
Step 4
Characterization environmental trends and indicator relationship
Establish risk classes
Describe conditions for the selected environmental value
Choose methods for risk analysis, and describe risk to environmental value being assessed
Define risk classes
Predicted future status
Low risk benchmark
Current condition
Predicted threshold
Base case
Assess the range of proposed development options
Assess the degree of risk at various future times, for the range of management
Intensity, scale and duration at the various management activities of the proposed habitat alteration
Predicted future pressure resulting from those activities
Consequent changes in selected indicators linked to the value being assessed
The status of environmental values and indicator under natural conditions
Defined based on the estimation of an average or median condition and a range of variation over a specified time
Will provide prediction and modeling of future changes through cumulative impacts
Current inventory information
Measuring where we are now
Medium & long term predictions of future conditions should be made to come out with the result of cumulative impacts and assumptions of continuing current management practices
This will provide an important comparison for final analysis and decision making
Selection of benchmarks based on existing conditions often leads to ignoring background risk that may be due to cumulative impacts from past changes
The definition process would provide insights for proposing risk reduction strategies in the decision making process because of able to understand the linkage between pressure and impacts
The definition involve the definition of management regimes that will create conditions necessary for the maintenance of the environmental value
A conditions with a high probability of sustaining the environmental value in question over the long-term
The definition should avoid direct linkages with any specific option under consideration, such as a particular standard or objective
This three are considered as the component in the development option
Involve the process of comparing each component based on the available information
Predicted interactions with pressure
Predicted changes in habitat attributes or indicators linked to the value or resources being assessed
Type, effectiveness & degree of specificity of proposed environmental protection measures
Feedback or the adaptive management
Assessing the degree of risk (class) based on the projected changes in Step 4 for the purpose of alternative development options
Methods commonly used
Professional judgement
Expert panels
Spatial analysis (GIS map overlay)
Computer modeling based on numerous assumptions and professional judgment in the construction model
Risk classes assigned by an individual based on a review of available information
Using basic statistics on indicators or data summaries to provide the background for the assessment
A group of expert individually assess risk or various aspects contributing to overall risk
The assessment are averaged or otherwise combined to provide an overall risk assessment
Source of the threshold
The threshold should be explicit
Is a critical level at which there is a significant shit in the probability of continued maintenance, utility or viability of the specified environmental value
Information needed in this task
Trend analysis requirement
Could be inherent from previous studies
Could be set up by a regulatory bodies
Include a description of the data
Reference to the data
Reference to the ecological model which the threshold level is based
Historic data
Targeted research
Inventory data (status of environmental value)
Methodologies
Indicators and their rationale
Information sources
Limitations to interpret the trends
Assumptions
Used to define the ranges of probability or likely hood of an undesirable outcome
Limited number of classes are most preferred to ease the interpretation (very low risk to very high risk
The term can be various depends on the accepted definitions (endangered wildlife classes)
The choice of analysis methods depends on the ability to;
- Model "cause-and-effect" relationships between pressure and changes to environmental values
- Track changes to the type, quality and/or extent of environmental conditions, indicators or habitat attributes
- Describe the risk to the environmental values being assessed.
Example methods that have been used
Professional judgement
Expert panels
GIS overlays and computer algorithms
Computer model based
The methods should be clearly described in ERA reports and presentations
Trend analysis (if the confidence level is low) requires a clear rationale from expert opinion and minimal data