Please enable JavaScript.
Coggle requires JavaScript to display documents.
Week 10 Economic Liberalisation and the 'Arab Spring' - Coggle…
Week 10
Economic Liberalisation and the 'Arab Spring'
Modernisation Theory
in the post-WW2 period, the rise of modernisation theory in the West, seeking to understand traditional societies' development into modernity
societies need to modernise because they will be more powerful, wealthier, democratic and ultimately better than pre-modern societies
main problems for policy makers in Europe and North America
how will the Middle East (Among other regions) enter modernity? Who will do this?
region posing an artificial challenge, because of Islam and problems associated with Arab nature
in reality, modernisation theory was extremely problematic:
Eurocentric in its assumption of all societies' linear development into industrialisation to globalisation
Essentialist in its understanding of modernity from a Western policy-maker's perspective (think, what
is
modernity?)
Ahistorical in ignoring efforts towards reform within the Middle East (for example, the Young Turks or the Tanzimat reforms of the Ottoman Empire
Orientalist in its understanding of the Arab world and of Islam as monolithic obstacles to any societal progress
who will modernise the (post) colonial world?
the state in the Middle East as an apparatus of modernity and transformer of society
not accidentally, the state emerges as the primary vehicle of economic policy, in the Mandate era and beyond
how will the state serves as a transformative instrument in the Middle East?
The Developmental State
How
import substitution industrialisation (ISI): State economic and trade policy replacing foreign imports with domestic production
state expansion at the expense of private enterprise
Why
protection from external threats; nationalist impulse
protection from internal threats; communism/ Marxism; old classes; formation of position of privilege
A 'ruling bargain' between elites and the people
Example: The Egyptian state under Nasser
military seizing power 1952 via the free officers revolution
centrally-directed economic development and state led capitalism that nationalised major private enterprises
linking economics and political survival: Egypt's graduate appointment policy
other examples: Libya 1969-, Algeria 1962-89, Iraq 1963-
Problems/Critiques of the developmental state in the Middle East
internationally, reliant on outside economic support
economic weakness of USSR, chaos, pro-capitalist shift in China
regionally, plagued by regional instability and lack of cooperation: Arab cold war, 1967 and shift of regional power to the oil-producing states
Domestically, ISI flaws; state sector ballooned; dependency culture; urban bias
inefficient public sector and inadequate planning
economic interests developing within elites (resources diverted, corruption)
The Neoliberal State
in the aftermath of the Ramadan/Yom Kippur War, the 1973 Oil Crisis; followed by the 1979 Energy Crisis; global stagflation; international debt crisis
economic crisis of the 1970s hits developing countries, particularly those indebted/facing massive deficits (as the Middle East developmental states)
at the same time, petrodollars find their way back to US banking institutions
As a result, IMF and World Bank introduce massive Third World leading programmes, sending money back to the developing world, albeit with conditions: structural adjustment programmes
IMF lending to countries with balance of payments problems: WB for development projects, 1989, John Williamson and the 'Washington Consensus'
again the 'state' identified as the problem behind the lack of development in the Middle East which now needs to shrink and become minimal
waves of privatisation and and influx of foreign captial
pressure on middle class, widening gap between rich and poor
reduction of subsidies on oil, gas and basic foodstuffs
the era of the 'fat cats' taking over major sectors of middle east states' economies (banking, telecommunications,etc)
the breaking of the 'ruling bargain' and a disconnect between ruler and ruled
examples: Tunisia 1969, Egypt 1974 under President Sadat, Israel 1977 etc
How do we get to the Arab Uprisings?
following the end of colonialism, a series of 'ruling bargains' between state elites and their citizens across the Middle East (remember the developmental stage)
towards the end of 1970s, Arab governments began to renege on this ruling bargain (remember the neoliberal stage)
as a result, an erosion of the ruling bargain across the Middle East:
2010: 60% of the Arab population was below the age of 30; a 'youth bulge' (health care; but also, fertility by those bearing children in the 1950s and 1960s)
youth unemployment (15-29): 30% in Tunisia, 43% in Egypt ('waithood')
food insecurity: price of grain and foodstuff grew exponentially (bread riots)
a number of global and regional precedents: 1979 revolution: bread riots etc
a particularly post cold war, bottom up momentum that transcends polarisations
previous factors (unemployment, food crises, the youth bulge) made Arab regimes vulnerable but did not cause the 2011 events because they disregard the human element
does economic deterioration cause a revolution?
french revolution vs 1929 great depression
what about the timing of the revolution?
no one predicted or could have predicted the uprisings
yet the spark is clear: 17 Dec 2010 a young Tunisian street vendor Mohammed bouazizi sets himself on fire after being humiliated by a policewoman who confiscated his wares
he had tried to complain at the local municipality to no avail
despite differences (Egypt is 6 times larger than Tunisia, and contains 100 million citizens vs 11 Tunisians also Tunisia is wealthier and more urban)
Similarities:
vast majority Sunni Arabs: prevented the instrumentalisation of sectarianism or elites' claims of the country potentially falling to a different sect
strong national identity as part of a history of state building ('the people want')
no possibility of state fragmentation
past uprisings - 'bread riots' in the 1970s
the fullul - deep state remnants in place, ensuring administrative continuity
both states at the forefront of economic neoliberalism
long history of authoritarian rule:
in Tunisia, Bourguiba and Ben Ali (1957-2011) ruled since independence; elections won with a majority of 89%-98%, a repressive security apparatus
in Egypt, Mubarak in power since 1981, winning elections with few rivals; 2 million Egyptians being part of the security apparatus and thugs (baltagiya)
corruption of epic proportions - privatisations of public enterprises at bargain prices
neoliberal policies taking their toll (food prices; unemployment; inequality etc)
security forces and police brutality
protesters' reliance on social media and occupation of public spaces
Tunisia
victory of Islamist Ennahda Movement ('rennaissance') in 2012 elections
Ennahda and its leader, Ghannouchi announce that sharia will not be the main source of legislation - Tunisia to continue as a secular state
2014; Tunisia and Dignity Commission established as part of national reconciliation
yet, massive problems for its transition:
ISIS attacks 2015; blow to tourism sector contributing to the overall poor state of the Tunisian economy
regional instability, particularly in Tunisia's eastern border (Libyan Civil War)
lack of international attention or support from 2012 onwards
Egypt
victory of Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood 2012 elections
protests continue as liberals and seculars fear President Mohammed Morsi's autocratic and Islamist agenda
army intervals 2014 kills hundreds, restores power to the Egyptian army and Field Marshall Abdel Fatah el-Sisi becomes President
Massive problems continue:
a divided country: was the 2014 army intervention a 'coup' or a '2nd revolution'?
a struggling economy, now with the support of the IMF
an increasingly authoritarian regime, for many worse than Mubarak's
An 'Arab Spring'
Why not 'Arab Spring':
loaded term: use by Americans in post-2003 Arab world and Bush's 'freedom agenda'
Orientalist in assuring no struggles had taken place before 2011
inaccurate: only one uprising (Syria) started in springtime. All others in the dead of winter
Misleading: Spring, associated with joy and renewal, raising expectations that can only be dashed
struggle for rights only contained in one 'season'? Algeria, Bahrain, Syria, Lebanon etc
up for debate
Conclusion
Modernisation theory to Developmentalism to Neoliberalism/al-Infitah policies
avoid facile explanations of Middle East political economy such as: Islam is incompatible with modernity; corruption and economic inefficiency are inherent characteristics of the Middle East or the Muslim world; the sudden 2011 Arab Spring that presumably replaced the 'Arab Winter'
keep in mind the commonalities- as well as the differences- between Egypt, Libya and Tunisia