RISK AND DECISIONS
oleh : Rizki Rahmayanti
(09111840000121)
DEFINITION
DECISION MAKING
process of making choice or selecting one option among the available and known alternatives
COMPONENTS
Decision environment
Quantity of information
Decision stream
out of or on the basis of many parallel posssible decision
the collection of information, alternatives, values, and preferences
human mind process limited data, if more processing is biased towards first part
CONCEPTS OF DECISION MAKING
INFORMATION
ALTERNATIVES
CRITERIA
this is knowledge about decision, its effects, alternatives, and probabilities of alternatives
diff. possibilities
criteria of alternatives
STRATEGIES OF DECISION MAKING
OPTIMIZING
SATISFICING
MAXIMAX
MAXIMIN
1) selecting alternative based on their maximum payoff, 2) optimistic, 3) for risk takers, not cosidering loss
strategy of choosing best possible soon
choosing staisfactory and sufficient alternatives
maximize the minimum
PROCEDURES
Identify decision to make and goals
Rate each alternatives
Get facts
Rate risk of each alternaties
Develops alternatives
Make decision
RISK MANAGEMENT
An evaluation of potential risks can shows at early stage whether or not a proposal is worth pursuing
Risk management means identifying potential risks so that it can be managed on ongoing basis
RISK APPETITE AND TOLERANCE
RISK APPETITE
RISK TOLERANCE
Willingness and commitment to take a risk
boundaries within which a organization has the capacity and capability to take a risk
RISK MANAGEMENT FRAMEWORK
IDENTIFICATION
QUALIFICATION
RESPONSE CONTROL
Key risk symptoms
assumptions
external sources
ICQ analysis
Effects
likelihood
Hideability
Opportunities and threats
Corrective action
Contingency and reserves