Reflective writing: Topic 4 Policy Forecasting and Formulation - Coggle…
Topic 4 Policy Forecasting and Formulation
Process of predicting future direction/actions towards problem (policy agenda)
Process of drafting courses action (policy options) to address what has been placed on the policy agenda
Problem of forecasting
In-accuracy of data/info
not enough information to forecast policy future
Limitation of forecasting methods and techniques
dependent on data & model to predict
dependent on personal opinion to predict future
Invalid expert opinion
if the opinion of one person is incorrect, the forecast is incorrect
can influence individual, who then create pessimistic forecast
difficult to eliminate the forecaster's personal bias from the data that underlies the forecast
In-accuracy of forecast
unexpected situation happen so it will be hard to forecast
all qualitative forecast assume that certain characteristics that exist in the past will exist in the future
Data is expensive
difficult to access unless you pay for it
Methods of forcasting
Need persons who are good with statissic
Methods that relies on the opinions and judgments of human being (individual or group of panel) to predict future direction.
The panels makes decision base on their expert judgment (knowledge, personal experiences, and intuition)
Face to face meeting technique
Meetings provide a time and place for face-to-face contact and two-way communication
Meeting help break down barriers between people and the agencies that serve them
Through meetings, people learn that an agency is not a faceless, uncaring bureaucracy and that the individuals in charge are real people
Meetings give agencies a chance to respond directly to comments and dispel rumors or misinformation
Decision may be inaccurate due to personal considerations and interest, and at last become the result of one or few experts’ views only.
It assumes that forecasting by a group of experts is better than any forecast made by an individual expert
Advantages & Disadvantages
The success of Delphi process depends upon the member's expertise and communication skill.
Each response requires adequate time for reflection and analysis
The major merits of the Delphi process are
Elimination of interpersonal problems.
Efficient use of expert's time.
Diversity of ideals.
Accuracy of solutions and predictions.
Advantages and disadvantages of Qualitative Methods
Although qualitative method can be costly (to pay for expertise), it may ultimately yield the most accurate and unbiased results
Allow human input in the decision-making process,
Purpose of forecasting
To plan for the best possible course of action
To use the past and present situation to determine the future states of a problem
To shape the future in an active manner in relations to what has happened in the past
Forms of forecasting
a forecast based on informed or expert judgements about future states of society
Deciding which type/category of policy option to introduce
one of combination of the following types of options will be determine
Types/category of policy options
Allocation of power
once analysis is done, administrator will draft the policy
Assuming the course of action able to resolve problem and is cost effective,
Political actor decides on which policy recommendation to be accepted
Questions to be address at the authorization stage