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Week 5 - Judgement and Decision Making - Coggle Diagram
Week 5 - Judgement and Decision Making
Specific Biases
Overconfidence
Over-precision: way too sure about judgements
Illusion of control: thinking we have more control over circumstances than we do
Planning fallacy: over-estimating how quickly we will complete tasks
Better-than-average effect: people evaluate themselves more favourably than they evaluate others
Dunning-Kruger effect: ignorance of one's own ignorance
Availability Heuristic
Assessing the frequency, probability, causes of an event by the degree to which instances of that event are readily available in memory
Representativeness Heuristic
People look for characteristics the individual or event may have in common with previously formed thoughts when making judgements
Gain/loss Framing Effects
Whether a question is framed as gain versus loss would influence individual's risk preferences when collecting information and making decisions
Anchoring
Developing estimated by starting with an initial number that is based on information provided
Escalation of Commitment
Investing additional resources in a failing course of action
Confirmation Bias
Seek, interpret, recall information that is consistent with pre-existing beliefs despite opposing evidence
Self-serving Bias
Making judgements in ways that benefit us
Hindsight Bias
Overestimating what we know beforehand based upon what we later learned
Curse of Knowledge
Ignoring the fact others may not have the knowledge we have
Winner's Curse
Suspecting over-bidding after winning a deal
Default Effect
Setting a default increases the likelihood that that option is chosen
Perception Process
Receiving and making sense of information in the environment
Perceiver Biases
Goals and needs
Existing knowledge
Emotions
Attribution Process
How we think about the cause or motives behind an event/behaviour
3 characteristics
Distinctiveness: do they act the same way in different situations
Consensus: Do they act the same way toward other people?
Consistency: Do they act the same way over time?
Fundamental Attribution Error
When explaining other's behaviour, attributing more to internal factors than external