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TOPIC 4, GROUP MEMBERS: 1. Mohd Azri bin…

- - - - Method of Forecasting
        
        Purpose
        
        Forms of Forecasting
        
        Prediction
        
        Projection
        
        Conjecture: Forecast based on informed or expert judgements about future states of society
        
        To plan for best possible action among the various alternatives which the future may offer
        
        To use the past and present situation to determine the future states of a problem
        
        To shape the future in an active manner in relations to what has happened in the past.
        
        Qualitative methods: Judgmental
        
        Genius Forecasting
        
        It is a subjective approach where intuition or gut feeling are used in making decision about future direction
        
        Genius is an expert panels with considerable experience. They forecast the future based on knowledge, intuition, and luck
        
        Consensus
        
        Face to face meeting
        
        Decision is made by panels through consensus
        
        Delphi technique
        
        Panel of selected experts only
        
        Problem of Forecasting
        
        Inaccuracy of information
        
        Limitation of forecasting methods
        
        Invalid experts opinion
        
        Personal bias
        
        Inaccuracy of forecast
        
        Data is expensive and difficult to process
        
        Quantitative methods: Relies on hard data/statistics/statistical model
        
        Time series
        
        Using of past values data to make decision for future
        
        Regression Analysis:
        
        Exponential smoothing method:
        usage of formula and graph
        New Forecast=a(most recent observation)+(1-a)(last forecast)
  - - - 2 elements:
        
        Analysis
        
        i.analyzing the course of action
        ii.deciding type of policy choose
        
        i.Analyzing the course of action
        1.valid
        2.implementable
        3.efficient
        
        ii.Choose the type of policy
        1.Inducement
        2.Regulatory
        
        Enforcement
        4.Allocation of power
        
        Action : Administrators
        
        Authorization
        
        At this stage, the action is able to resolve the problem and cost-effective, now the cabinet members will discuss and vote for the majority either accept or not(first reading)
        
        The question to address at authorization stage 1.to what extend the chosen course of action able to get political support
        2.to what extend the chosen course of action able to get administrative support
        3.to what extend the chosen course of action able to get public support.
        
        Action :
        1.Policy Maker
        
        Politician