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CHAPTER 4 POLICY FORECASTING AND FORMULATION, To plan for the best…

- - - - Time series
        
        using of past values data of variables to predict future
      - Exponential Smoothing
        
        using statistical model:
        New Forecast = α (most recent observation) + (1 - α) (last forecast)
      - Advantage
        
        eliminates and reduce inflated forecasts
        
        better in attracting stakeholders
        
        addresses historic data
        
        expose the patterns of collected dat
        
        Disadvantage
        
        rely on numbers rather than expertise
        
        costly data
        
        need to hires expertise in mathematics or statistics
        -lacks of details
  - - - Census
        
        face to face meeting
        
        Advantage
        
        respond directly
        
        able dispel rumours or misinformation
        
        breakdown barrier between people & agency
        
        Disadvantage
        
        lack of attention
        
        decision maybe inaccurate
        
        Delphi Technique
        
        Advantage
        
        selected based on their expertise
        
        diversity of ideas
        -accuracy of solution and prediction
        
        eliminates interpersonal problems
        
        Disadvantage
        
        the successfullness depends upon the members' expertise and communication skills.
      - Genius Forecasting
        
        Advantage
        -most accurate and unbiased results
        
        Allow human input in the decision-making process
        
        Subjective
        
        Genius forecasting cuts time and costs
        
        Disadvantage
        
        Not all statements about the future by geniuses are genius forecasts
        
        A genius is limited to a particular field of knowledge
- - - - 4. Invalid experts opinion
        
        5. Personal bias
        
        6. In-accuracy of forecast
        
        All qualitative forecasts assume that certain characteristics that existed in the past will exist in the future.
        
        However, sometime due to unexpected occurrences happen, such as changes in weather, social and economic factors can affect the decisions affect decision and the accuracy of a forecast.
        
        It is difficult to eliminate the forecaster’s personal bias from the data that underlies the forecast.
        
        For instance, a panel who tend to be optimists, will likely develop a forecast that is overly optimistic
        
        If the opinion of one person is incorrect, the forecast also incorrect.
        
        The most recent situations can influence individuals will led to create overly pessimistic or optimistic forecasts
      - Quantitative method
        
        Highly dependent on data and model to predict future.
      - Qualitative method
        
        Highly dependent on personal opinion to predict future from the experts.
- - - - Once the analysis is done, the administrator will proceed to drafting the policy ( legislation or administrative rules for the courses of action chosen)
        
        AUTHORIZATION:
        
        At this point, the policy actor will decide on the policy recommendation or the cause of action that should be approved or allowed, provided the course of action is able to solve the problem and is cost-effective.
        
        This is done through political process (first reading).